EUROZONE-GREECE/BAILOUT-ANALYST Analyst says bailout deal will pass but snap elections loom

Record ID: 135249

  • Title: EUROZONE-GREECE/BAILOUT-ANALYST Analyst says bailout deal will pass but snap elections loom
  • Date: 12th August 2015
  • Summary: ATHENS, GREECE (AUGUST 12, 2015) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERT AND EU LAW LECTURER, DR. NIKOS SKOUTARIS, SAYING: "Tsipras actually enjoys the overwhelming support of the Greek population, even people that did not vote for him at least accept that he has made an effort. Now, one has to ask and one has to question whether this support will be short-li
  • Embargoed: 27th August 2015 13:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Greece
  • Country: Greece
  • Topics: General
  • Reuters ID: LVA6C2SOPBXFORIJOFPVU32R689A
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: As the Greek government races to bring the bailout deal to a vote in parliament before the Eurogroup meets on Friday (August 14) an analyst said on Wednesday (August 12) that this is only the beginning of leftist prime minister Alexis Tsipras's problems.
    Greece and its creditors reached a deal on an 85 billion euro bailout package on Tuesday (August 11) and need to pass the measures in parliament in order for cash to be doled out and for the country to avoid financial collapse. At least three billion euros are needed by August 20 to settle a debt to the European Central Bank (ECB).
    Dr. Nikos Skoutaris is a constitutional expert and a European Union law lecturer at East Anglia university in the UK, he has been monitoring the situation in Greece closely.
    "I mean, clearly, there are some resistances at the parliament level, especially the speaker of the parliament, the speaker of the house is actually resisting to issue an express procedure. But I do think, because there is a lot of pressure from the government, that the parliament will actually sign, will actually ratify the agreement by the end of this week. The point is, though, that no matter whether the parliament will actually ratify the agreement, it remains to be seen whether actually the Eurogroup will agree at a political level in the meeting that they are going to have on Friday," he said.
    "The opposition in fact has already signalled that their support of the government has a deadline, and the deadline is actually the reaching of the agreement with the EU. So I don't think that there will be a problem to pass, to ratify the agreement, but this doesn't mean that Syriza can actually rule the country without the support of their own lawmakers," he added.
    Last month, Tsipras lost the support of more than 30 lawmakers during a vote to pass a second package of reforms in exchange for bailout deal talks to commence.
    "I don't think there is any doubt that we're going to have a snap election, I don't think that anybody in Greece believes that this government can last the four years of its mandate. In fact, all the members of the government have already admitted that there will be a snap election. The question is whether the snap election will take place in September or actually in November, after the first evaluation from the quartet and after the discussion of the negotiation about the Greek debt," Skoutaris said.
    Skoutaris said that elections, no matter their outcome, will interrupt the implementation of the austerity measures, which include pension cuts and a number of tax hikes.
    "Greece as an administration is a system that heavily relies on the actions of the ministers, right, so the ministers have a very hands-on approach in Greece. So if the ministers are more interested in actually earning an election, earning the vote, it goes without saying that they will be less active on actually pushing the reforms. Now having said that, one has to say that in order for those reforms, those very difficult reforms, to pass, we need a government that will have a majority, if not an overwhelming majority. So in a way, it's a vicious circle, elections will be a problem in the implementation of the reforms, but without elections, without a strong government, reforms cannot pass," he said.
    "Tsipras actually enjoys the overwhelming support of the Greek population, even people that did not vote for him at least accept that he has made an effort. Now, one has to ask and one has to question whether this support will be short-lived, because in the past, the previous governments also enjoyed some support but when the measures were actually implemented, were actually felt by the Greek public, then, the support went down. So at the moment, as we speak, Tsipras is a very, very strong prime minister. I don't think that anybody can actually challenge his power, but when the measures are actually implemented, so, in the next fall or in the next winter, it remains to be seen whether the Greek public will continue to support him," he added.
    A Greek Finance Ministry official said the pact would be worth up to 85 billion euros ($94 billion) in fresh loans over three years. Greek banks would get 10 billion euros immediately and be recapitalised by the end of the year.
    The agreement gives Greece some respite after a turbulent year marked by acrimonious talks with lenders, the imposition of capital controls and a three-week shutdown of its banks before Athens capitulated last month to creditors' demands for deep austerity measures in order to receive new loans.
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