MIDEAST-CRISIS/RUSSIA-SECURITY CONCERNS Russia at risk of revenge attacks over Syria strikes - expert

Record ID: 136096

  • Title: MIDEAST-CRISIS/RUSSIA-SECURITY CONCERNS Russia at risk of revenge attacks over Syria strikes - expert
  • Date: 15th October 2015
  • Summary: MOSCOW, RUSSIA (FILE - MARCH 29, 2010) (ORIGINALLY 4:3) (REUTERS) EMERGENCY VEHICLES NEAR PARK KULTURY METRO STATION
  • Embargoed: 30th October 2015 12:00
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  • Topics: General
  • Reuters ID: LVA6TDVIS4EN7OO408WMDRD5IVZW
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: EDITORS PLEASE NOTE: THIS EDIT CONTAINS MATERIAL WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY 4:3
    With Russia's air campaign continuing in Syria, Russian security officials are on high alert.
    President Vladimir Putin has taken a risk by launching air strikes against Islamists in Syria because they could incite militants to seek revenge by attacking targets inside Russia.
    The head of Russia's Anti-Terrorist Committee Alexander Bortnikov, speaking at a security meeting in the Northern Caucasus region this week, said the country's security services were focusing on religious extremists.
    "Anti-terrorist commissions in the regions of Northern Caucasus Federal District have been ordered to concentrate their attention on measures against citizens under radical influence and religious extremists and also to perform active counter-propaganda to counter-balance an aggressive Islamic ideology of a radical nature," Bortnikov said.
    The Kremlin has largely contained Islamist violence in Russia by cracking down hard but the bombardment of Syria could prompt global jihadists to put Russia on the list of targets they encourage their followers to attack.
    Islamic State called on Muslims to launch a "holy war" against Russians and Americans over what it called their "crusaders' war" in the Middle East, an audio message distributed by supporters of the ultra hardline group said on Tuesday.
    "This formal declaration of armed jihad against Russia is aimed at ensuring a further non-stop flow of manpower, of gun fodder which Islamic States gets in huge numbers from the territory of our country," said Ahmet Yarlykapov, an expert on the Northern Caucasus and regional security at MGIMO (Moscow State University of International Relations).
    Russia's main breeding ground for Islamist radicals is in the mainly Muslim North Caucasus region, including the republics of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia, where Islamist insurgencies have been simmering for years.
    In Ingushetia, local leaders have been urging young people to ignore calls to avenge the Russian bombing raids on Syria, which Moscow says has targeted Islamic State, as well as other Islamist groups opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
    But Yarlykapov said these calls may not be enough to counter Islamic State propaganda targeted at Russian-speaking Muslims in Russia and Central Asia.
    "For al Qaeda, despite its presence in the Northern Caucasus, Russia was a rather minor project. And for Islamic State, Russia is one of the serious sources of effective manpower. Because if we look at the (propaganda) materials of Islamic State, we will see that Russian is the third important language after English and Arabic," he said.
    He said the air campaign in Syria made Russia vulnerable.
    "I think that we should expect very serious terrorist acts against civilians first of all. Because this is their pattern, and a very clear pattern (to reach) a maximum number of casualties," he said.
    By entering the Syria conflict, Russia could now join the front rank of Islamist targets, with the financing, recruiting, and ideological power of global jihadist networks potentially channelled into organising attacks on Russia.
    Russia's main weak point is the North Caucasus, where underground insurgent networks are armed with light weapons and are sheltered by local residents. They already stage intermittent ambushes on security forces, some of them fatal.
    Russia has suffered attacks by Islamist militants before, including suicide bombings in Moscow five years ago which killed dozens of people.
    On March 29, 2010, suicide bombers set off twin explosions explosives on the metro system in central Moscow, killing 40 people. And on January 24, 2011, more than 30 people were killed in a suicide bombing at Moscow's Domodedovo airport.
    Muscovites say they fear further attacks.
    "I am afraid, I am really afraid of a terrorist attack. That's why today I am driving my car despite the traffic. Because it makes me really worried," Moscow resident Svetlana said.
    "Relatives and family should be home, should stay together. And for now, all trips are cancelled until it calms down. One should avoid tourist trips in this direction. That is my opinion," another Moscow resident, Islam, said.
    "If anything happens, it will happen no matter where you are: in the metro or a public place, for example in a theatre," said Veronika.
    Security has been beefed up since the airport attack in 2011 and there have been no successful attacks on civilian targets on such a scale. Metal detectors have been set up at metro station entrances and anyone entering airport buildings in Moscow has their bags scanned.
    But if extremists are seeking a high-profile act of violence to force the Russian public and the Kremlin to take notice, they would be likely to try to attack a civilian target in or near Russia's big population centres.
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