- Title: Warnings, planning and building strength: lessons learned from deadly tornadoes
- Date: 12th December 2021
- Summary: NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, UNITED STATES (DECEMBER 12, 2021) (Reuters) (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "I know there were a large number of tornado emergencies that were that were issued, which is the strongest possible language we have. It's not completely clear how much stronger we could make the messages, and it would be the question of, frequently, even in what looks like about the worst situation possible, not everywhere gets hit by the worst stuff. And how many times do you tell people, you know, this is it, this is end of the world coming up. And if it doesn't happen, what do they do the next time? And so we have concerns like that of how we, you know, if I tell you there's a there's a tornado that's approaching you. You know, if the tornado hits you in general, the best outcome is still a bad outcome." WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "I think one of the lessons that it's taken a long time for meteorologists, I think, to think to understand this, is that there's, no matter how good our physical understanding and predictions are, there's a lot that happens beyond that, that we could try to help with, but we're not actually the experts in that. And so how do we actually partner with people that are experts in those in those areas to help them do their job to help people. And it's not even clear what the right outcome is. You know, there are some of us who are sort of talking about the idea of, I want people to be comfortable with the decisions they make. I don't want to tell them what the decision they make has to be, and if they don't make that decision, they made the wrong decision because I may not know what's going on in their, you know, in their in their life. WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "Building codes can be improved and lots of places, not very many places have done that. I mean, there are some, you know, the city of Moore, here in Oklahoma City, has the strongest building code. Retrofitting houses for tornado is hard, because you have to work on attaching the sill plate of the house to the foundation and attaching the walls of the house to the roof. And so essentially, you have to take off, to do this kind of stuff, you'd have to take off all the sheet rock and whatever the outer facing of your house is. So that's not real easy. But certainly with new construction, it would help a lot." WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "For me, it almost always comes down to lessons on how to get response and how was the response. And then the question that goes with that then is, for, I mean, the candle factory is going to be a big item for discussion, I'm sure, is whether they had adequate shelter or not. How long in advance would you have needed information and then what kind of information would you have needed to make a decision that would have led to fewer fatalities." WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, TALKING ABOUT THE DAMAGED CANDLE FACTORY IN KENTUCKY, SAYING: "If the building wasn't sufficiently well built then there was no adequate shelter in the building, and then that becomes a question of where in the world is there adequate shelter? And maybe the maybe the right answer was, well, we would have needed to have known before the evening shift arrived and we would say we're closing down for the evening. And at that point, it becomes, well, are we really going to call you at four o'clock in the afternoon that you're going to get hit five hours from now? Because that then might pose some questions for the meteorological side of how much better do we have to make our understanding of the science? And so those are the things. I think we're at a point where mostly our learning now is in the human behavior, social science side. So I think that is the biggest thing in how we how we interact with that." WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "The timing of it makes it one of those, boy, that looks like the same time as the planet starts to warm rapidly. But I mean, I have friends that we have a friendly non bet that it's global warming or it's not. And I my guess is that probably me on the global warming side, I'm probably like 55% to 60% that that's the answer. And my friend who's on the other side is probably it's he's probably 55% to 60% that it's not global warming. Neither one of us would be surprised to be wrong, but neither one of us could prove our case." WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "My guess is that variability is going to continue to increase and I think tornadoes are really hard. I'm pretty confident severe thunderstorms, which tornadoes are one aspect of severe thunderstorm, that there will be more severe thunderstorms in the U.S. in the future, and that the biggest increase will be a non tornadic wind events and probably an increase in hail will also occur. Tornadoes are extra hard. And that's just, I don't think that we'll see enough evidence for changes in the intensity if there are any or frequency." WHITE FLASH (SOUNDBITE) (English) DR. HAROLD BROOKS, TORNADO EXPERT AND SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST AT NOAA'S NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY, SAYING: "Whether there's climate change affecting tornadoes or not, people need to actually have a plan. That's the biggest thing."
- Embargoed: 26th December 2021 23:54
- Keywords: Illinois Kentucky building codes construction damage lessons preparedness tornadoes warning
- Location: NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, UNITED STATES
- City: NORMAN, OKLAHOMA, UNITED STATES
- Country: USA
- Topics: Disaster/Accidents,United States,Wind/Hurricane/Typhoons/Tornadoes
- Reuters ID: LVA001F7QFKNB
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text:After a string of powerful tornados struck the U.S. Midwest and killed more than 100 people this weekend, attention turned on Sunday (December 12) to the warning systems in place, and how communities and leaders can interpret alerts and prepare for potentially deadly weather.
Meteorologists in local offices of the National Weather Service issue a tornado warning when a tornado is either reported by spotters or indicated by radar and there is a serious threat to lives and properties in its path. An even higher level of warning, rarely issued, is a tornado emergency.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday (December 11) raised questions about the tornado warning systems.
"What warning was there? And was it strong enough and was it heeded?" Biden said.
Tornado expert Dr. Harold Brooks, a senior research scientist at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, said several tornado emergencies were issued on Friday. The variable with the alerts, he said, is how people in communities react to them.
"It's not completely clear how much stronger we could make the messages," Brooks said. "I think one of the lessons that it's taken a long time for meteorologists, I think, to think to understand this, is that there's, no matter how good our physical understanding and predictions are, there's a lot that happens beyond that, that we could try to help with, but we're not actually the experts in that."
Brooks gave the example of a candle factory in Mayfield, Kentucky, where eight people were killed when a tornado destroyed the building where 110 employees were working.
"The candle factory is going to be a big item for discussion," he said, "whether they had adequate shelter or not. How long in advance would you have needed information and then what kind of information would you have needed to make a decision that would have led to fewer fatalities."
"I think we're at a point where mostly our learning now is in the human behavior, social science side. So I think that is the biggest thing in how we how we interact with that," Brooks said.
If buildings like the factory are not built well enough, Brooks said, then there are no safe places to shelter. Bringing in building safety rules could help prevent extensive damage, he said, but retrofitting work to strengthen existing weak structures is problematic.
"Retrofitting houses for tornado is hard, because you have to work on attaching the sill plate of the house to the foundation and attaching the walls of the house to the roof. And so essentially, you have to take off, to do this kind of stuff, you'd have to take off all the sheet rock and whatever the outer facing of your house is. So that's not real easy. But certainly with new construction, it would help a lot," he said.
Brooks said it was difficult to predict whether tornado activity would increase significantly in frequency or intensity in the future, or know whether climate change plays a part.
"Whether there's climate change affecting tornadoes or not, people need to actually have a plan. That's the biggest thing," he said.
(Production: Jane Ross) - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
- Copyright Notice: (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021. Open For Restrictions - http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp
- Usage Terms/Restrictions: None