- Title: Sinn Fein eyes milestone election victory in push for Irish unity
- Date: 3rd May 2022
- Summary: SINN FEIN ELECTION POSTER WITH A PICTURE OF VICE PRESIDENT MICHELLE O'NEILL
- Embargoed: 17th May 2022 12:58
- Keywords: Irish elections Jeffrey Donaldson Michelle O'Neill Northern Ireland Sinn Fein United Ireland
- Location: BELFAST AND NEWTOWNARDS, NORTHERN IRELAND, UNITED KINGDOM
- City: BELFAST AND NEWTOWNARDS, NORTHERN IRELAND, UNITED KINGDOM
- Country: UK
- Topics: Europe,Government/Politics,Elections/Voting
- Reuters ID: LVA003521602052022RP1
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text: Sinn Fein's dream of a united Ireland is set to hit a milestone this week with the former political wing of the IRA on course to triumph at elections in Northern Ireland as it bids to soon be the lead party in government on both sides of the Irish border.
The one time global political pariah has an eight-point advantage ahead of the May 5 election, according to an opinion poll on Tuesday, an outcome that would almost certainly make it the British-run province's largest party for the first time.
An Irish nationalist party coming out on top would represent a historic shift 24 years after the Good Friday peace accord ended three decades of sectarian bloodshed. Though a referendum that could result in unity with the adjacent Republic of Ireland is likely years away, Sinn Fein senses growing momentum.
"We are in a decade of opportunity, a decade of opportunity to bring about that change," Sinn Fein's leader in Northern Ireland, Michelle O'Neill told Reuters at its 'Time For Real Change' election manifesto launch.
"I'm less fixated about dates (for a referendum) and more concerned about the planning, the work needs to happen and the constitutional change conversation must be had."
The party, led by a younger generation of politicians with fewer links to the IRA's campaign responsible for more than half of the 3,600 killings during Northern Ireland's 'Troubles', wants the Irish government to start planning for the possibility of a border poll.
A pre-election canvass in the patchwork constituency of north Belfast suggests breaking away from Britain is not at the top of voters' minds.
While Sinn Fein campaigners are greeted by some houses flying Irish tricolours and another with a sign reading 'céad mÃle fáilte' - the Irish for the welcome - the rocketing cost of living and struggling health services are the chief concerns.
"Sinn Fein has run quite a nuanced campaign which is a pitch to the persuadable and middle ground," Chris Donnelly, a political commentator, and former Sinn Fein candidate said of the party's restrained push on the doorstep for a united Ireland.
Irish unity takes up just one page in the 17-page manifesto.
It is a similar case in the Republic of Ireland where an even wider Sinn Fein lead in opinion polls ahead of elections in three years' time is not a signal that Irish unity is top of the agenda.
Sinn Fein shocked the political establishment there in 2020 by securing more votes than any other party, forcing Ireland's two dominant center-right parties to join forces for the first time in order to keep their left-wing rivals out of power.
An exit poll showed a years-long housing crisis and similar problems in the health service were the most important issues for 60% of those who cast their vote. Irish unity was not among the 10 options they were asked had they considered.
Pro-British parties are nevertheless using Sinn Fein's push to withdraw Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom with England, Scotland and Wales to galvanise support.
"I think unionists are very concerned about what a Sinn Fein victory would mean in terms of their divisive border poll plans," Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the biggest pro-British party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), told Reuters.
A collapse in support over the last 18 months for the DUP is the main reason why it is poised to lose the office of Northern Ireland's first minister to Sinn Fein under a structure where the main nationalist and unionist rivals are obliged to share power.
Unionists captured less than half of the seats for the first time at the last election in 2017 and polls suggest that anger over post-Brexit checks introduced between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK is set to spill that share more widely among unionist parties this time around.
Monday's poll showed that the cross-community Alliance Party could even catch the DUP, an unthinkable prospect five years ago.
While Brexit also gave the debate about a United Ireland a boost after a majority in Northern Ireland sought to remain in the European Union, the requirement to share power with unionist rivals will limit what Sinn Fein can actually do about it.
It is also solely up to the British government under the terms of the 1998 peace deal to call a referendum if they believe a "yes" majority looks likely. Opinion polls have consistently shown most voters favour the status quo.
Still, analysts believe a Sinn Fein victory on Thursday could be a watershed moment.
"It would be significant where a party committed to the change of sovereignty from the United Kingdom to a United Ireland became the largest representative party," said Donnelly, the political commentator.
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