- Title: Fearing war in Xi's next term, Taiwan bolsters defences
- Date: 12th October 2022
- Summary: TAIPEI, TAIWAN (RECENT - OCTOBER 5, 2022) (REUTERS) RESEARCH FELLOW AND DIRECTOR AT INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY RESEARCH, SU TZU-YUN, TAKING A SEAT IN FRONT OF THE SCREEN SHOWING THE MAP (SOUNDBITE) (Mandarin) RESEARCH FELLOW AND DIRECTOR AT INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY RESEARCH, SU TZU-YUN, SAYING: "The threat from China comes from the fact that 2027 will be a landmark year for them. It's the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), coupled with the possibility of Xi Jinping taking on a fourth term, so this might turn into a perfect storm, causing them to take military risks. On the other hand, if Taiwan makes good (national defence) preparations, China might not be willing to take those risks. So, the way that Taiwan can be better prepared is by embracing so-called asymmetric capabilities. This is a very good option." SU TALKING (SOUNDBITE) (Mandarin) RESEARCH FELLOW AND DIRECTOR AT INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY RESEARCH, SU TZU-YUN, SAYING: "If the attack on Taiwan fails, it would be a very big political disaster for the CCP, the communist party. Taiwan would be a so-called sea and air battle, different from the Ukraine which is a land battle, so Taiwan is a bit luckier. Taiwan is easy to defend and hard to attack. So, I think that in the near future, Xi Jinping will be a bit calmer after securing his third term, but in the long term, of course, he will want to occupy Taiwan. Therefore, the long-term outcome will depend on Taiwan's preparedness."
- Embargoed: 26th October 2022 01:23
- Keywords: China Chinese Communist Party (CCP) President Tsai Ing-wen Taiwan Taiwan Strait U.S. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi conflict defence diplomacy military military drills party congress politics territory
- Location: TAIPEI, PINGTUNG, TAIWAN
- City: TAIPEI, PINGTUNG, TAIWAN
- Country: Taiwan
- Topics: Asia / Pacific,Conflicts/War/Peace,International/National Security
- Reuters ID: LVA007104909102022RP1
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text: Taiwan is bolstering its defences and steeling itself for the possibility of war with China as leader Xi Jinping readies to assume a third term in power and tries to achieve what no predecessor has done by taking control of the island.
Xi has made no secret of his desire to make democratically ruled Taiwan a part of the People's Republic of China, peacefully if possible but with force, if needed, cementing his legacy in the history books.
China's war games near Taiwan in August pushed tensions to their highest in decades, reigniting fears of conflict that have loomed ever since the defeated Republic of China government fled to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's communists.
President Tsai Ing-wen in her national day speech on Monday (October 10) said war was "absolutely not an option", which a source familiar with her thinking said was aimed partly at China's ruling Communist Party congress, which opens on Sunday (October 16). She also outlined steps to boost the military including with mass production of precision missiles and warships.
Xi is widely expected to win his third term at the one-every-five-years party congress.
While Taiwan has lived with the threat of Chinese invasion for more than seven decades and there is no sign of public panic at Beijing's bellicosity, government officials are alarmed and offer a stark analysis in private.
A Taiwanese source familiar with the government's China policy, speaking on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to discuss intelligence assessments with media, said Taiwan "really need to be prepared to fight".
Xi, with bringing Hong Kong to heel, showed he has ditched late reformist leader Deng Xiaoping's maxim of "biding your time and hiding your strength" said Lin Fei-fan, deputy secretary general of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
Xi was trying to push China's global influence and attain goals not achieved by his predecessors, Lin told Reuters at party headquarters in downtown Taipei.
"I do think that in the next five years it will be more intense for cross-strait relations, it will be more unstable and also it will be more… the tensions across the Taiwan Strait will escalate to a different level," Lin said.
Any war could devastate the global economy, given Taiwan's key role as a semiconductor producer, and potentially drag in the United States, whose President Joe Biden pledged last month to defend Taiwan in the event of any "unprecedented attack" by China.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to a request for comment.
Last month it reiterated a pledge to achieve peaceful "reunification" under the "one country, two systems" model of autonomy used for Hong Kong, though that has been widely rejected in Taiwan.
China has not come up with a timetable for "resolving the Taiwan issue" as Chinese officials term it, but Xi said in his first year as president in 2013 that a political solution could not wait forever.
Huang Kwei-bo, an associate professor of diplomacy at Taipei's National Chengchi University, said Xi would likely want to get Taiwan under his control sooner rather than later.
"Because the later the two sides get unified the greater cost Beijing is going to pay for national unification," he told Reuters. "Xi Jinping would like to unify Taiwan as soon as possible, in a safe way in terms of maintaining his leadership and political and economic security for the PRC."
Director at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, Su Tzu-yun, said the significance of 2027 would also increase the risk of conflict with China.
"2027 will be a landmark year for them. It's the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), coupled with the possibility of Xi Jinping taking on a fourth term, so this might turn into a perfect storm, causing them to take military risks," the research fellow said.
"On the other hand, if Taiwan makes good (national defence) preparations, China might not be willing to take those risks."
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