Europe's energy security this winter? Depends on the weather

Record ID: 1693128

  • Title: Europe's energy security this winter? Depends on the weather
  • Date: 14th October 2022
  • Summary: BRUSSELS, BELGIUM (OCTOBER 11, 2022) (REUTERS) WORKER AT ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE OF BELGIUM (RMI) APPROACHING A PLUVIOMETER VARIOUS OF WORKER INSPECTING PLUVIOMETER WORKER INSPECTING THERMOMETER VARIOUS OF THERMOMETER RMI FORECASTER PASCAL MAILIER WATCHING WEATHER MAPS WEATHER MAP SHOWING EUROPE (SOUNDBITE) (English) FORECASTER AT THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE (RMI) OF BELGIUM, PASCAL MAILIER, SAYING: "I think that if you want certainties, then you don't talk to scientists, you talk to priests. Science is the best tool that we can have. But if you don't agree to work with something else than absolute certainty, then go for religion. That's my answer." VARIOUS DRONE SHOTS OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE OF BELGIUM (MUTE)
  • Embargoed: 28th October 2022 14:14
  • Keywords: EU energy gas temperature weather winter
  • Location: VARIOUS LOCATIONS
  • City: VARIOUS LOCATIONS
  • Country: Belgium
  • Topics: Environment,Europe,Weather
  • Reuters ID: LVA006181212102022RP1
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: European countries are buying gas at sky-high prices and scrambling to curb energy use to avoid fuel shortages this winter, but early weather forecasts point to the risk of a cold snap that could temporarily hike demand.
    Surging European gas and power prices as the result of reduced Russian supplies are stoking inflation, hampering industrial activity and inflicting record-high bills on consumers ahead of the northern hemisphere winter.
    Early winter forecasts released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on Thursday (October 14) said Europe could face a cold snap in December - indicating a potential extra energy squeeze, as countries attempt to cope with scarce Russian gas supplies and sky-high energy prices.
    "There is still a very significant risk of having a cold outbreak. And if anything, the risk is slightly higher than usual," Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at ECMWF, told Reuters.
    For the next few weeks, the weather in Western Europe is looking mild, thanks to warm westerly winds from the North Atlantic. But ECMWF's models show a higher than usual chance of a high pressure system developing over Europe in December, bringing cold air from Siberia and Central Asia and causing a drop in temperature of potentially several degrees.
    "If we have a drop in temperature, we could expect an uptick in energy demand for heating," Buontempo said.
    Medium term forecasts cannot predict with certainty that an event will occur, or its duration - "blocking patterns" of high pressure can last just a week, or longer.
    At the Belgian Royal Meteorological Institute in Brussels instruments laid out in the autumn sunshine on Tuesday (October 11), were cross-checking actual weather patterns with predictions made by meteorologists.
    Consulting maps for the coming weeks, Pascal Mailier confirmed that the weather looked mild in Belgium but added that detailed predictions looking further than a fortnight were not reliable.
    "If you want certainties, then you don't talk to scientists, you talk to priests. Science is the best tool that we can have. But if you don't agree to work with something else than absolute certainty, then go for religion," he said.
    (Production: Bart Biesemans, Jakob Van Calster, Clement Rossignol, Johnny Cotton)
  • Copyright Holder: REUTERS
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