AZERBAIJAN: Oil-rich Azerbaijan prepares for parliamentary elections that Western governments hope will be free and fair

Record ID: 218509

  • Title: AZERBAIJAN: Oil-rich Azerbaijan prepares for parliamentary elections that Western governments hope will be free and fair
  • Date: 4th November 2005
  • Summary: (BN08) BAKU, AZERBAIJAN (NOVEMBER 3, 2005) (REUTERS) WIDE SHOT BAKU, SHOWING MOSQUE AND CASPIAN SEA; MINARET OF MOSQUE WITH SEA AND OIL RIGS IN BACKGROUND; OIL RIGS IN BAY; OIL DERRICKS IN MUD (4 SHOTS)
  • Embargoed: 19th November 2005 12:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Azerbaijan
  • Country: Azerbaijan
  • Topics: Domestic Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVA4EK4E2A830TPU82S9ULE4F2WG
  • Story Text: Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections on Sunday (November 6) will do little to shake President Ilham Aliyev's grip on power, but political observers expect the polls to show enough democratic progress to please its oil-hungry U.S. allies and stave off mass protests.
    The Muslim ex-Soviet state on the Caspian Sea has never held a vote deemed fair by Western observers but diplomats say this ballot should be an improvement after Aliyev, under U.S pressure, ordered a last minute shake-up of election rules.
    The changes, which include for the first time daubing indelible ink on voters' fingers, are likely to scupper opposition plans for mass protests against ballot fraud, mimicking the uprising in Ukraine a year ago.
    But Azerbaijan's opposition leaders say they are ready for mass protests if there is any suggestion of poll rigging by the authorities.
    "If the announced results will not reflect the will of the people then we will by all means organise ourselves to confront the vote rigging and we will call for the population of Azerbaijan to stage rallies, marches and different kinds of demonstrations. But it will be only within the framework of the law and without violence," said opposition leader Ali Kerimli.
    Diplomats say Azerbaijan -- ruled by a political dynasty after Aliyev succeeded his father -- will still be riddled with corruption and years behind the region's boldest reformers, Ukraine and Georgia.
    Supporters of President Aliyev in the New Azerbaijan Party are expected to renew their massive majority in parliament, which is widely seen as a rubber stamp.
    But a cleaner vote will allow the United States, which until now has held Aliyev's administration at arm's length because of worries about its commitment to democratic reforms, to bring Azerbaijan closer into its embrace.
    OSCE election monitors in Azerbaijan say the authorities appear to have taken note of their concerns.
    "There is too much interference of administrative authorities, particularly in the provinces, in the election process by campaigning for official candidates, by obliging teachers having their pupils support the official candidate, also by using rooms, by using official cars and also direct pressure on some with threats against family or closing down business and so. Ever since I have been here I have taken these points up with the authorities because we have an understanding with them that we would not surprise them but that they would know what we observe and what we would criticise. And there has been reaction to this," said Geert Ahrene, Head of the OSCE observer mission in Azerbaijan.
    Washington is keen for a closer partnership with Azerbaijan because of its Caspian Sea oil - an alternative to supplies from Russia and the Middle East - with exports set to go up when a BP-led pipeline comes on stream early next year.
    Azerbaijan, which lies on Iran's north-west border, could also offer the U.S. military a friendly staging post close to potential hotspots in Central Asia and the Middle East.
    Since Aliyev was elected to replace his father, Haydar, in 2003, voters have seen the oil-driven economy grow strongly and they fear handing power to the opposition, which has no coherent programme, will put that in jeopardy.
    But Aliyev's critics say the economic and democratic reforms he promised when he took office have been hard to detect.
    New York-based group Human Rights Watch said official intimidation during the campaign, when dozens of opposition supporters were beaten and detained by police for holding banned protests, meant a fair vote was still impossible.
    However, the atmosphere has calmed since Aliyev two weeks ago bowed to international pressure and ordered the changes to electoral procedures.
    As well as inking voters' fingers to stop them voting twice, Aliyev lifted a ban on foreign-funded non-governmental organisations sending election observers.
    Analysts say the turning point came late last month when Aliyev jailed two ministers with powerful business interests behind them. Both installed by Haydar Aliyev, they were charged with plotting a coup. Officials say they have confessed.
    Reformists in the ruling elite said the arrests showed Aliyev had finally shaken off the influence of his father's old guard, who, they said, were frustrating his attempts at reform.
    They predicted more changes after the election, including the removal of veteran parliamentary speaker Murtuz Aleskerov.
    But Aliyev's critics say with corrupt members of the old guard still in influential positions in his team, Aliyev is only creating the illusion of reform.
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