NIGERIA: Political wrangling and rising opposition threatens ruling PDP party's hold on power

Record ID: 236300

  • Title: NIGERIA: Political wrangling and rising opposition threatens ruling PDP party's hold on power
  • Date: 4th February 2014
  • Summary: ABUJA, NIGERIA (RECENT) (REUTERS) VARIOUS OF PDP NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL MEETING IN PROGRESS PRESIDENT GOODLUCK JONATHAN LEAVING VENUE OF MEETING
  • Embargoed: 19th February 2014 12:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Nigeria
  • Country: Nigeria
  • Topics: International Relations,Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVAEU5WIJJBOA6EONT1K1YZEFLV8
  • Story Text: Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan is facing a crisis within his party centred around his assumed intention to run for another term in the 2015 election.
    His critics say it would violate an unwritten rule that power should rotate between the largely Muslim north and Christian south every two terms.
    Politics has become increasingly heated in Africa's top oil exporter since four opposition parties merged last February.
    Five state governors and dozens of lawmakers have defected from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressive Congress (APC).
    The APC poses the greatest challenge to president Jonathan and the PDP since it swept to power in 1999, ending years of military rule.
    Political analyst and Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, Jibrin Ibrahim says the political divisons may help to improve democracy in the country.
    "What this does is that it improves the quality of our elections and the quality of our politics because both the ruling PDP and the upcoming APC now know it's going to be a real contest, nobody has a guarantee of which side will win and therefore all I hope, strive very hard to improve the quality of the policy proposition they will make to Nigerians, they will come up with good solid manifestos and that we as citizens of this country can analyse them, can chose the one we feel can carry the nation forward," the political analyst said.
    The opposition coalition is stronger than any previous one, although analysts say it represents diverse interests that could easily fall apart as polling day approaches.
    Most of the defecting state governors are from the mostly-Muslim north, but there have been some moves from Rivers state in Jonathan's home oil-producing Niger Delta in the largely Christian south.
    To help galvanise support, President Jonathan last October announced that it was time for the long-awaited national conference.
    The national conference aimed at discussing crucial issues affecting Nigeria with the hopes of resolving them will commence in March and last for three months with 492 delegates representing different aspects of the society.
    Onyekachi Ubani, a barrister based in Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, however, claims the recent defections are politically motivated and will not benefit average Nigerians.
    "It's about personal interest, I don't think the nation, national interest or even the peoples' interest is coming into view or into focus you know, it is about their political survival. If your governor who holds the treasury has jumped ship, it will be very suicidal for you to remain in opposition while the governor that controls the treasury is in a different political party so it is political alignment, re-alignment and alignment all in order to perpetuate their interest and their political survival so I don't see anything that is in favour of the masses, it's all about their selfish interest and all the same, that's what I see," he said.
    The defections are expected to contribute to the most closely fought elections since the end of military rule but the power of incumbency is strong in Nigeria, although according to Ubani, the PDP is still clear favourite to win.
    "With all these happenings and with all these defections at the state level to opposition political parties, we can be very sure PDP house is clearly not in order and they may not likely hold the same ground they've been holding all these while politically but then as I said earlier until an election comes and people go out to cast their vote, you can now determine the political fortune of the opposition but for now PDP is still the political party to beat," Ubani said.
    Political wrangling has delayed crucial legislation, including the 2014 fiscal budget, and looks likely to ignite violence similar to that which has marred previous elections.
    Past elections in Africa's second biggest economy have tended to be both violent and full of irregularities.
    Jonathan was elected in 2011 in a poll judged to be the fairest since the end of dictatorship, but disputes over it triggered some of Nigeria's worst post-electoral violence in which at least 500 people died.
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