'US could see a recession': Energy expert warns of Iran War impact before Texas energy conference

Record ID: 2367429

  • Title: 'US could see a recession': Energy expert warns of Iran War impact before Texas energy conference
  • Date: 19th March 2026
  • Summary: HOUSTON, TEXAS, UNITED STATES (MARCH 18, 2026) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) KEN MEDLOCK, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES AT RICE UNIVERSITY, SAYING: "And now, of course, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is an event that pretty much everybody discounted pretty radically, has come to pass. It's very real and it again has highlighted the fragilit
  • Embargoed:
  • Keywords: energy energy crisis gas gas prices iran war oil oil prices strait of hormuz venezuela
  • Location: HOUSTON + WARD COUNTY, TEXAS + LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES + RAS TANURA, SAUDI ARABIA + MUSANDAM, OMAN + CABIMAS, ZULIA, VENEZUELA + IN AIR 
  • City: HOUSTON + WARD COUNTY, TEXAS + LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES + RAS TANURA, SAUDI ARABIA + MUSANDAM, OMAN + CABIMAS, ZULIA, VENEZUELA + IN AIR 
  • Country: US
  • Topics: Commodities Markets,Economic Events,North America
  • Reuters ID: LVA003534118032026RP1
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: An energy expert warned on Wednesday (March 18) that permanent damage to Middle East energy infrastructure from the Iran War could disrupt global oil and gas supplies long after the conflict ends, even as the halt of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil and LNG supply, drives prices higher.
    Total oil output cuts in the Middle East are estimated at 7 million to 10 million barrels per day, or 7% to 10% of global demand, and the economic fallout could tip the U.S. into recession, according to Rice University's Ken Medlock, senior director of the university's Center for Energy Studies.
    Speaking days before the annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, Texas, Medlock said the worst may be yet to come depending on how military actions play out.
    "If you start to see sustained strikes on refining capacity, on field production capacity and on port facilities, that could actually disrupt the flow of energy out of the Middle East much longer than this conflict would ultimately ensue," Medlock said. "Because you're not going to begin to repair that until the conflict's over."
    As oil prices continue to climb, Medlock said American consumers will feel the pain through rising grocery and dry goods prices, among other costs, and the economic impact could even result in recession.
    "Consumers are the loser, because there's no way around the fact that as energy prices rise, it just gets more expensive to do everything," Medlock said. "The U.S. could see a recession. It would likely be a relatively mild recession if it does happen."
    In Venezuela, Medlock noted only oil companies with established infrastructure in the South American country seem interested in capitalizing on the ouster of now-jailed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
    Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday and climbed further in extended trade after Iran attacked several energy facilities across the Middle East following a strike on its South Pars gas field, a major escalation in its war with the U.S. and Israel.
    The CERAWeek conference, which attracts energy industry executives, government officials and technology experts, runs from March 23 to March 27.
    (Production: Evan Garcia)
  • Copyright Holder: REUTERS
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