World trade growth set to slow to 1.9% this year, Iran war may weigh more, says WTO

Record ID: 2367524

  • Title: World trade growth set to slow to 1.9% this year, Iran war may weigh more, says WTO
  • Date: 19th March 2026
  • Summary: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (MARCH 19, 2026) (REUTERS) WTO EXPERTS ON STAGE BEFORE NEWS CONFERENCE STARTS WTO CHIEF ECONOMIST AND DIRECTOR OF THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND STATISTICS DIVISION, ROBERT STAIGER SPEAKING TO COLLEAGUE WTO DIRECTOR-GENERAL NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA ARRIVING AT PRESS CONFERENCE (SOUNDBITE) (English) WTO CHIEF ECONOMIST AND DIRECTOR OF THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ST
  • Embargoed:
  • Keywords: 2026 Iran Israel Middle East war Ngozi US WTO forecast report world trade
  • Location: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
  • City: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
  • Country: Switzerland
  • Topics: Europe,Government/Politics,International Trade
  • Reuters ID: LVA001560619032026RP1
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: Growth in world trade in goods will slow down markedly to 1.9% this year from 4.6% in 2025 and could decelerate even more if the Middle East war continues to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport, a World Trade Organization report said on Thursday (March 19).
        Last year a surge in artificial intelligence-related trade and goods front-loading to avoid a slew of U.S. tariffs enabled a better-than-expected growth performance.
        While global trade remains resilient, buoyed by trade in AI-related products, the growth forecast is under pressure from the expanding U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the report says. 
        If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026 due to the conflict, global trade in goods could slow further to 1.4%, WTO economists said.
        A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, choking one-third of fertilizer urea imports, risks hitting major producers like India, Thailand, Brazil, fueling food security risks, the WTO report said.
        Sustained high energy prices could shave 0.5 percentage points off global merchandise growth, with Asian and European fuel-reliant importers hit hardest.
        Services trade also faces a 0.7-point drop from growth forecasts of 4.8% to 4.1% due to shipping and flights disruption, the report found. Last year services trade grew by 5.3%.
        Last year, world merchandise trade grew at nearly double the forecast rate as a surge in demand for AI-related goods, such as chips and semiconductors, offset the impact of U.S. tariffs and subsequent trade turmoil, the report stated.
        WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said this figure served as a lesson ahead of the WTO's conference in Cameroon next week where trade ministers will meet to discuss reforms to the global trade body, that the rules-based system "may be battered, but it is far from broken."
    (Production: Cecile Mantovani)
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