- Title: Trump faces critical choice as war in Iran hits ‘inflection point’, analyst says
- Date: 5th April 2026
- Summary: GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (APRIL 5, 2026) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) IRAN PROJECT DIRECTOR AT INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, ALI VAEZ, SAYING: “President Trump seems keen on taking the madman theory to new heights by demonstrating that there is basically no red line, no limitations in what he's willing to do in order to achieve his objectives. He also seems pretty furious
- Embargoed:
- Keywords: Ali Vaez International Crisis Group Iran United States analyst conflict war
- Location: VARIOUS
- City: VARIOUS
- Country: US
- Topics: Conflicts/War/Peace,North America
- Reuters ID: LVA004004905042026RP1
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text: U.S. President Donald Trump will face a critical choice as the war in Iran has reached an ‘inflection point’, according to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organization.
“President Trump would really have to decide whether he wants to continue apace, continue to degrade Iran's military capabilities without necessarily bringing about the strategic results that he had in mind of dismantling the Iranian regime or reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” Vaez told Reuters on Sunday (April 5).
“Or is he going to escalate significantly in order to try to get the Iranian regime to capitulate?”
U.S. special forces rescued an airman in a high-risk mission deep inside Iran while President Donald Trump threatened to rain "hell" on Tehran if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil flows vital to the world economy.
Trump announced the rescue in the early hours of Sunday (April 5) in a social media post that described the operation in a mountainous area as "one of the most daring" such missions in U.S. history.
“Wars are not won by rescues,” Vaez said, warning of escalating costs and risks for all sides. “He (Trump) is trapped in an escalation trap. His only option in order to get closer to his objectives is to go deeper into this crisis.”
In another post laden with expletives, Trump told Iran to open the Hormuz waterway by Tuesday. The conduit for around a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supply has been largely shut down since the war began five weeks ago.
"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran," he said on his Truth Social platform, threatening to hit energy and transport infrastructure that critics say would violate international law.
"There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
“(Trump) seems pretty furious because of the fact that this war, now in its sixth week, has not been as clean and easy as he expected to begin with,” Vaez said.
“And because the Iranians are not capitulating, his frustration seems to be building up to a level that he is lashing out rhetorically - and it is also quite possible that that would be matched by actions,” he added.
However, in the sort of mixed messaging that has baffled supporters and foes alike let alone financial markets, Trump told Fox News on Sunday (April 5) that Iran was negotiating, with a deal possible by Monday (April 6).
“I think it starts maybe with something narrower with regards to the Strait (of Hormuz) and then diplomacy can build on that to try to resolve some of the underlying issues,” Vaez said.
“But this would require a tremendous amount of patience, discipline and flexibility, which are all things that unfortunately, so far the Trump administration has not demonstrated that it is good at doing.”
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