BRAZIL-ELECTION-CAMPAIGNS Presidential campaigns get underway in Brazil following death of third place candidate

Record ID: 347193

  • Title: BRAZIL-ELECTION-CAMPAIGNS Presidential campaigns get underway in Brazil following death of third place candidate
  • Date: 19th August 2014
  • Summary: RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL (AUGUST 18, 2014) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (Portuguese) POLITICAL ANALYST, RICARDO ISMAEL, SAYING: "The framework is still not settled. Now we are going to look for (voters) making up their minds. For part of the population it is clear that some have already decided on Dilma, Aecio or on Marina. But there is still another part that is very much up in th
  • Embargoed: 3rd September 2014 13:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Brazil
  • Country: Brazil
  • Topics: General
  • Reuters ID: LVA26VKYXNHDUMSZPQAHOCJ6O5DT
  • Story Text: Brazilian presidential candidates officially kicked off the start of campaigning on Tuesday (August 19) with the launching of political advertisements that will splatter the airwaves leading up to the October 5 first-round vote.
    The election took a tumultuous turn last week when Eduardo Campos, who was polling in third place, suddenly died in a plane crash.
    Campos' running mate, Marina Silva, is expected to be formally announced to replace Campos on the Brazilian Socialist Party's (PSB) ticket on Wednesday (August 20).
    Silva's entry into Brazil's presidential race will almost certainly force a second-round runoff and the environmentalist could even unseat President Dilma Rousseff, according to a poll released on Monday (August 18).
    In the survey by polling firm Datafolha, Silva had the support of 21 percent of voters, almost three times more than the late, center-left Campos had at the top of the ticket.
    It also showed Silva ahead of Rousseff by 4 percentage points if there is a runoff between the two.
    Political analyst, Ricardo Ismael, told Reuters the poll showed that the recent events have turned the election cycle on its head just as campaigning gets underway and added to uncertainty for the Rousseff camp which had focused on Neves.
    "Datafolha reveals a significant move in the election situation. Marina (Silva) didn't just inherit Eduardo's (Campos) votes, but also managed to gain among undecided voters and even a bit in relation to Dilma (Rousseff). So, in this case we are seeing that this poll, which was done Thursday and Friday of last week, that Marina is in second place. Dilma is in first place; Marina in second in a technical tie with Aecio (Neves). And what is most revealing is Marina is beating Dilma in a second round. Which means if the election were today, Marina would have 47 percent of the vote and Dilma 43," Ismael explained.
    Campos died last Wednesday (August 13) giving the Brazilian Socialist Party, or PSB, little time to alter political ads ahead of Tuesday, the date all three candidates were allowed to finally launch their radio and television campaigns.
    The PSB ran Campos ads that were superimposed with his candidate number '40' next to a ribbon that was half black and the other half in Brazil's green and yellow colours.
    Silva has not yet been officially nominated, but the ads featured her standing next to the late candidate and successful two-time governor of Pernambuco state.
    The Neves and Rousseff campaigns are expected to try to discredit Silva, an environmentalist who is popular among young voters and who won 19.3 percent running for the Green Party in the 2010 presidential election.
    But with many voters already having made up their minds on Rousseff, who has led the country over the past four years, and centrist and market favourite Neves, Silva may still have the most to gain just as the ads are disseminated.
    The poll showed support for Rousseff was unchanged from last month at 36 percent and remained at 20 percent for Neves, showing that Silva's surge came among voters who were previously undecided.
    "The framework is still not settled. Now we are going to look for (voters) making up their minds. For part of the population it is clear that some have already decided on Dilma, Aecio or on Marina. But there is still another part that is very much up in the air," Ismael said.
    If Silva can sustain the momentum, she could pose the biggest threat to the ruling Workers' Party since it was voted in under Rousseff's predecessor and mentor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva almost 12 years ago.
    Silva appeals to young voters disillusioned with Brazil's establishment and seeking an alternative to the two-decades-old rivalry between Rousseff's Workers' Party and Neves' Brazilian Social Democracy Party.
    Ismael said Silva might have a chance to break through the clutter, something Campos was struggling to do.
    "Since '94 Brazil has seen this fight between PT and PSDB. This was Eduardo's big challenge; to try and break this polarization. His death could help in breaking this polarization," Ismael said.
    The Datafolha poll was the first based on Silva's expected election run and could be skewed by a sympathy vote.
    The numbers could change when Silva hits the campaign trail and begins to outline her policies.
    The poll of 2,843 eligible voters was conducted Aug. 14-16 in 176 cities and had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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