- Title: KENYA: Stakes high as country braces for election
- Date: 1st March 2013
- Summary: NAIROBI, KENYA (FEBRUARY 28, 2013) (REUTERS) VARIOUS OF POLITICAL ANALYST, TOM MALITI, WORKING IN HIS OFFICE (SOUNDBITE) (English) POLITICAL ANALYST, TOM MALITI, SAYING: "This is the most important election in Kenya since 1963 when the country gained independence from Britain. Whoever becomes president will have reduced powers and the national assembly and other instituti
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- Topics: Politics
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- Story Text: On Monday (March 4) Kenyans will choose a new president in a neck-and-neck national vote that has abscinded the east African nation and stoked fears of a repeat of the bloodshed that followed the contested race five years ago.
According to recent polls, Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya's deputy prime minister and son of its first president is deadlocked with Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement or ODM.
Yet this year's race is haunted by the past.
Son of independent Kenya's first President Jomo Kenyatta, 51-year-old Uhuru Kenyatta -- a former finance minister -- has been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for instigating the violence after the 2007 race.
The United States and other major Western donors are watching warily.
Victory by an ICC suspect would make for tricky relations with a nation seen as vital to regional stability and a bulwark against militant Islam in neighboring Somalia.
Tom Maliti is a political analyst in Nairobi and has been following events closely.
"This is the most important election in Kenya since 1963 when the country gained independence from Britain. Whoever becomes president will have reduced powers and the national assembly and other institutions will have stronger power to check the presidency. This is a huge change for Kenya," he said.
"Equally, for the first time in the country's history, an individual facing criminal charges is seeking to lead the country and is asking people for their vote. That is why this is also a big election for Kenya," he added.
Many thought the ICC charges, which Kenyatta refutes, would destroy his bid for the presidency, but on the contrary, the indictment has only helped galvanise support for him and his running mate, William Ruto, among many Kenyans who see the charges as foreign meddling in domestic matters.
"He spent easily 18 months campaigning on this issue and as he was campaigning at times he will put the fact that he is facing charges at the ICC right at the front, and at times put them at the back," said Maliti
"But from January 2011 to about May 2012 this was central to his bid for presidency and in essence he was mobilising his core constituency, the Kikuyu, more than anything else," he told Reuters television.
For Deputy Prime Minister Kenyatta, son of the first president after Kenya became independent from Britain in 1963, losing means he would have an unsympathetic government at home while he faces charges of crimes against humanity in The Hague.
Prime Minister Odinga, on the other hand, may be facing his last shot at the top job after narrowly missing out in 2007.
Failure would mark another defeat in the family's political ambitions after Odinga's father fell out with Kenyatta's father in a long-running rivalry during the early years of Kenyan independence, and failed to secure the top post.
Over the years, he has fallen out with several of his allies who were part of ODM during the 2007 elections.
Most notable among them is Ruto, now running mate to Kenyatta who faces faces ICC indictment as well.
Odinga and Kenya's current president, Mwai Kibaki, were credited for pushing for a new constitution, passed in 2010, which was a key component in the accord they signed to end the ethnic bloodshed after the disputed 2007 elections.
Other neighboring countries fear another bout of violence will again choke the Kenyan trade corridor and send shockwaves through their economies.
Landlocked Uganda has built up fuel reserves and its construction firms have stockpiled materials.
Maliti said global interest in Monday's vote should not underestimate the reach of its impact.
"The outcome of the Kenyan election is important for the international community because Kenya is a regional hub, both economic and diplomatic regional hub, for the region, and if Kenya is stable then it means they can continue to do business to further relations with Kenya," he said.
"If Kenya becomes unstable and we go back to the violence of January, February 2008, then of course they will have to begin to wonder maybe we need to relate to Kenya differently," he added.
Both top contenders are way ahead of the other six rivals, but polls suggest the race is too close to call, raising the prospect of a bruising run-off in April unless one candidate can get more than 50 percent. A narrow victory, however, could well be challenged by the loser or his backers.
Provisional results could emerge hours after the vote because of a new electronic tallying system, but official results may not be announced for a day or two, or even longer.
In the last poll, rival tribe members wielding machetes, knives, and bows and arrows butchered more than 1,200 people after the disputed vote, shattering Kenya's reputation as one of the continent's most stable democracies and dealing a heavy blow to east Africa's biggest economy from which it is only now recovering.
The government has spent five years trying to rebuild confidence with a reformed judiciary and newly appointed police commanders. Church preachers and civil society groups have brought politicians and rival voters together in rallies in Nairobi's central park to appeal for a peaceful vote.
The National Cohesion and Integration Commission was formed after the bungled 2007 poll to facilitate and promote equality, good relations, harmony and peaceful coexistence between persons of different ethnic and racial backgrounds.
The commission's chariman, Mzalendo Kibunjia, said however he had no fears over this year's election.
"I am convinced beyond reasonable doubt that we will have a peaceful election in 2013 and there maybe skirmishes here and there in the counties because of the many positions that are being contested in the counties but I do not expect the kind of violence that we saw in 2007," he said.
"I am telling people that it is not a wedding, it is not a wedding ceremony where everyone has to be nice. It is a contest so there maybe people who lose and try to create violence but I can tell you if they create violence it will be put out very quickly," he added.
The run-up has been tense.
Tribal violence fuelled by political rivalries killed almost 200 people late last year in the Tana region and scuffles marred primary races in the run-up to votes that will also include races for the governors of major cities and the upper and lower houses of parliament.
In the capital Nairobi, business is slow and many have travelled upcountry in anticipation of the vote.
"Business has really gone down due to this election. People are afraid of buying things and rich people are afraid of using money, so we are praying that the Monday election comes and passes so that our lives can go on," said Tom Oyugi, a Nairobi resident.
Investors are betting on a calm vote.
Share prices have rallied and the shilling is trading around its strongest levels against the dollar this year. - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
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