VARIOUS/MIDEAST: All eyes on Palestinian elections as Israelis prepare for their own ballot.

Record ID: 398395

  • Title: VARIOUS/MIDEAST: All eyes on Palestinian elections as Israelis prepare for their own ballot.
  • Date: 19th January 2006
  • Summary: PEOPLE SITTING IN CAFE
  • Embargoed: 3rd February 2006 12:00
  • Keywords:
  • Topics: International Relations,Domestic Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVA7S54DQKBN1GMC7244IGE6UOCE
  • Story Text: Kidnappings and shoot-outs have been an everyday fact of life in Gaza - with poorly armed and poorly motivated security forces seemingly unable to enforce the rule of law.
    Although Palestinian political factions have agreed to keep the calm during the elections next Wednesday (January 25), many ordinary Palestinians and Israelis fear the aftermath of the poll in which militant group Hamas is expected to make a strong showing.
    The Israeli public - already caught up in its own election battle - will be following the Palestinian elections closely.
    Israel's withdrawal last year from the Gaza Strip, which it first occupied in 1967, left a security vacuum in the narrow coastal territory, which has since been filled by gunmen from different political and religious factions as well as criminals looking to exploit the instability.
    The descent into anarchy has been a severe embarrasment for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, as armed members of his Fatah party have been involved in much of the lawlessness
    As a testing ground for a future Palestinian state, the situation in Gaza has raised severe doubts in Israel about the possibilities for future peacemaking - particularly after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon suffered a massive stroke which has left him in a coma for the past two weeks.
    Since the Gaza pull-out, many in Israel had identified Sharon as the only Israeli politician with the political strength and will to push through unpopular decisions that might pave the way for peace.
    Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that Israel will continue pressing its demands for the disbanding of militant groups, whatever the election outcome.
    "I think it would be a mistake, certainly at this time, to release anyone from responsibility that he himself committed to within the framework of the road map and not to demand from him over and over again to fight the terrorists and disarm the terror groups from their weapons," Olmert said last week.
    Despite its pull-out from Gaza last year, Israel maintains a tight security cordon around the territory, with regular artillery barrages launched in response to militant rocket attacks on Israeli targets.
    Israel maintains that once the militant attacks stop and Palestinian security forces assert control it will move forward with further confidence-building and peacemaking efforts.
    "I hope that based on the results of their elections and after that the results of our elections, I will be able to enter negotiations with Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) under the condition that he will uphold his commitments for a permanent settlement between us and the Palestinians," Olmert said.
    The issue of Hamas' participation in the elections has underlined the dilemma facing Western countries that advocate free elections in the Middle East, but also worry that victory will go to groups - such as Hamas - that they brand as terrorists.
    Hamas is sworn to destroying the Jewish state and has gained widespread popularity among Palestinians for its charity work, its perceived freedom from corruption and a suicide bombing campaign against Israel.
    Israel has welcomed foreign criticism of Hamas during the election campaign. Israeli officials say that if Hamas wins, it would spell an end to peacemaking.
    Abbas hopes that by bringing Hamas into the political mainstream it would improve chances for disarmament, a process that is meant to start under a U.S.-backed peace road map.
    But Hamas has repeatedly said it will not stop fighting after the election, the first parliamentary poll it will contest. It boycotted the only previous ballot, in 1996, because it opposed interim peace accords with Israel.
    "Once the militants opposition will be more powerful in the Palestinian arena, it will encourage the Israeli militants, the Israeli right wing because this is usually the answer - if you want a war, we'll give you back war. If you want to be more tough with us, we'll be more tough with you. So, unfortunately, from my point of view, if the Hamas will become more powerful in the Palestinian arena, it will damage the moderate, flexible, dovish factors in Israel," said columnist Danny Rubenstein of the Haaretz newspaper.
    Israel's political map was hastily redrawn at the end of last year, with Sharon's defection from the right-wing Likud party to form his own centrist party called Kadima. His subsequent illness, and the perception that his career is at an end, has increased the political stakes. The results of next week's Palestinian elections could up those stakes further - with Israeli parties, already in a state of flux, scrambling to stake their positions on peace making with the new Palestinian administration.
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