JAPAN: Researchers at the University of Tokyo say there is a 70 percent chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake hitting the Japanese capital within the next four years

Record ID: 466186

  • Title: JAPAN: Researchers at the University of Tokyo say there is a 70 percent chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake hitting the Japanese capital within the next four years
  • Date: 28th January 2012
  • Summary: TOKYO, JAPAN (JANUARY 26, 2012) (REUTERS) EXTERIOR OF UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO SIGN READING IN ENGLISH AND JAPANESE "UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO" SHIN'ICHI SAKAI, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO, WORKING IN OFFICE SAKAI'S HAND USING COMPUTER MOUSE MORE OF SAKAI WORKING MAP ON COMPUTER SCREEN SHOWING SEISMOLOGICAL DATA (SOUNDBITE) (Japanese) SHIN'ICHI SAKAI, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO, SAYING: "When we did the calculations last summer, tectonic activity was up by about six or seven times. At that point in time we established there was a 98 percent chance of a quake within 30 years -- or for the next four years, it would likely be 70 percent." KAMAKURA, KANAGAWA PREFECTURE, JAPAN (JANUARY 26, 2012) (REUTERS) VARIOUS OF KAMAKURA COASTLINE VARIOUS OF GREAT BUDDHA AT KOTOKU-IN TEMPLE WOMAN PRAYING IN FRONT OF GREAT BUDDHA MORE OF GREAT BUDDHA SCHOOL CHILDREN HAVING THEIR PHOTO TAKEN IN FRONT OF GREAT BUDDHA FACE OF GREAT BUDDHA BEHIND TREE BRANCHES YOKOHAMA, KANAGAWA PREFECTURE, JAPAN (JANUARY 26, 2012) (REUTERS) TSUNAMI HAZARD MAP IN KANAGAWA PREFECTURAL OFFICE TOSHIAKI KAWASAKI, HEAD OF KANAGAWA PREFECTURE RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL PLANNING DIVISION, EXPLAINING HAZARD MAP (SOUNDBITE) (Japanese) TOSHIAKI KAWASAKI, HEAD OF KANAGAWA PREFECTURE RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL PLANNING DIVISION, SAYING: "We thought we should conceive the inconceivable for tsunamis, so we looked at historical earthquakes that hadn't been part of our thinking before. There are records that show the Meio Earthquake of 1498 created a tsunami that reached right up to Kamakura's Great Buddha; we wanted to put those sorts of tsunamis, too, into our plans." TOKYO, JAPAN (JANUARY 26, 2012) (REUTERS) STREET AT NIGHT NEON SIGN READING IN JAPANESE "KARAOKE" MORE OF PEOPLE IN STREET (SOUNDBITE) (Japanese) UNIDENTIFIED MAN WEARING FACE MASK, SAYING: "Well Japan's a nation based on earthquakes -- so I don't know exactly what calculations they used, but it wouldn't really be a surprise if one hit, would it?" (SOUNDBITE) (Japanese) TOKYO RESIDENT NAMIKO GOTO, SAYING: "It's difficult to put into words what I'd do if one hit, it's like I can't think. I'm panicking just at the thought. My heart's racing."
  • Embargoed: 12th February 2012 12:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Japan, Japan
  • Country: Japan
  • Topics: Disasters,Environment,Science
  • Reuters ID: LVAVMY6GBAH6K50W7NU7ZYISSK1
  • Story Text: Academics at Tokyo University's Earthquake Research Institute say there is now a 70 percent chance a magnitude 7 quake will hit the Tokyo area in the next four years.
    Government surveys estimate that could cause about 11,000 casualties and destroy around 850,000 buildings, if a magnitude 7.3 quake was centred in the north of Tokyo Bay.
    Official figures also show there is a 70 percent probability of such an event -- but at some point in the next three decades.
    "When we did the calculations last summer, tectonic activity was up by about six or seven times. At that point in time we established there was a 98 percent chance of a quake within 30 years -- or for the next four years, it would likely be 70 percent," Shin'ichi Sakai, one of the authors of the Tokyo University study, told Reuters.
    Sakai said the university's new calculations take account of greater seismic activity since March, while the government uses older data.
    There has been a fivefold increase in the number of quakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area since the March disaster, the research team said, basing its calculations on data from the Japan Meteorological Agency.
    Now, on the fringes of Tokyo, local officials are preparing for a shock.
    A magnitude 9 quake and subsequent tsunami devastated the northeast coast in March, leaving up to 23,000 dead or missing.
    In the shadow of Kamakura's Great Buddha, two hours from Tokyo and about a kilometre from the sea, planners are turning to history to get ready for the worst.
    Among the records of a tsunami more than five centuries ago, hints that 14-metre-high waves swept inland to the Buddha, double the size in previous contingency plans.
    "We thought we should conceive the inconceivable for tsunamis, so we looked at historical earthquakes that hadn't been part of our thinking before. There are records that show the Meio Earthquake of 1498 created a tsunami that reached right up to Kamakura's Great Buddha; we wanted to put those sorts of tsunamis, too, into our plans," lead tsunami defence planner for Kanagawa Prefecture, Toshiaki Kawasaki, said.
    Japan is situated on the "Ring of Fire" arc of volcanoes and oceanic trenches that partly encircles the Pacific Basin, accounting for about 20 percent of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater.
    The Great Kanto earthquake of 1923 had a magnitude of 7.9 and killed more than 140,000 people in the Tokyo area.
    If the Tokyo University academics are correct, some Tokyo residents fear history may repeat itself only too soon.
    "Well Japan's a nation based on earthquakes -- so I don't know exactly what calculations they used, but it wouldn't really be a surprise if one hit, would it?" said one unidentified man in central Tokyo.
    "It's difficult to put into words what I'd do if one hit, it's like I can't think. I'm panicking just at the thought. My heart's racing," Namiko Goto, a Tokyo resident, said.
    A magnitude 7.3 quake hit central Japan in 1995, devastating the port city of Kobe. It killed more than 6,400 people and caused an estimated $100 billion in damage.
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