- Title: Presidential prediction system put to test under 'precedent-shattering' Trump
- Date: 27th September 2016
- Summary: WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (SEPTEMBER 27, 2016) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) HISTORIAN ALLAN LICHTMAN SAYING: "I have said, you know, based on my system, my prediction would predict the Democratic Party, the party in power, to lose. This should be a year in which any generic Republican should win. But, for the first time in 30 years - so I'm not trying to, you know, hedge my own system - but for the first time in 30 years I've said there is a real qualification to this prediction, because the prediction is based on the patterns of history, and Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to shatter those patterns."
- Embargoed: 12th October 2016 20:22
- Keywords: Allan Lichtman presidential debate prediction Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
- Location: HEMPSTEAD, NEW YORK / WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES
- City: HEMPSTEAD, NEW YORK / WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES
- Country: USA
- Topics: Government/Politics,Elections/Voting
- Reuters ID: LVA00851CGKLJ
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text: The first U.S. presidential debate of 2016 was a "clear loss" for Donald Trump, according to American historian Allan Lichtman, known for successfully predicting the outcome of every race since 1984.
"He was really good and really strong on trade early on, and then it went badly downhill for him," he told Reuters at American University on Tuesday (September 27).
While Lichtman has projected a win for the Republican Party this year based on his usual indicators, namely the performance of the party in power, Trump's unusual candidacy has made him question whether the model will hold up.
"For the first time in 30 years I've said there is a real qualification to this prediction, because the prediction is based on the patterns of history, and Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to shatter those patterns," Lichtman said.
As a result, he said the candidates' debate performances could play a heightened role on election day. Their next match-up is on October 9.
"I think Hillary Clinton has got to do what she did in large part, but she needs a much better answer on the trade issue...she needs a little bit of a better defense of the Obama administration," Lichtman said.
He had starker advice for her opponent: "Donald Trump needs a complete turn around. He cannot debate again the way he debated in this first debate." - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
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