- Title: Presidential prediction system put to test under 'precedent-shattering' Trump
- Date: 27th September 2016
- Summary: WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (SEPTEMBER 27, 2016) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) HISTORIAN ALLAN LICHTMAN SAYING: "Well, I think Hillary Clinton has got to do what she did in large part, but she needs a much better answer on the trade issue and a better answer on the issue, you know, 'you're just a typical politician, you're all talk, you guys have done nothing.' I think she needs a little bit of a better defense of the Obama administration. Donald Trump needs a complete turn around. He cannot debate again the way he debated in this first debate. He can't be grimacing, and sighing, and interrupting Hillary Clinton. He can't be doubling down on obvious falsehoods, like 'Hillary Clinton started the birther movement' or 'I was always against the war in Iraq.' He needs a much better grasp of policy and specifics. And, he needs to take advantage of opportunities that were completely missed in this debate. We hardly heard anything about Hillary Clinton's e-mails. He didn't take advantage of that or the FBI investigation, didn't hear one word about her gaffe on 'baskets of deplorables.' He was really good and really strong on trade early on, and then it went badly downhill for him."
- Embargoed: 12th October 2016 20:22
- Keywords: Allan Lichtman presidential debate prediction Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
- Location: HEMPSTEAD, NEW YORK / WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES
- City: HEMPSTEAD, NEW YORK / WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES
- Country: USA
- Topics: Government/Politics,Elections/Voting
- Reuters ID: LVA00651CGKLJ
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text: The first U.S. presidential debate of 2016 was a "clear loss" for Donald Trump, according to American historian Allan Lichtman, known for successfully predicting the outcome of every race since 1984.
"He was really good and really strong on trade early on, and then it went badly downhill for him," he told Reuters at American University on Tuesday (September 27).
While Lichtman has projected a win for the Republican Party this year based on his usual indicators, namely the performance of the party in power, Trump's unusual candidacy has made him question whether the model will hold up.
"For the first time in 30 years I've said there is a real qualification to this prediction, because the prediction is based on the patterns of history, and Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to shatter those patterns," Lichtman said.
As a result, he said the candidates' debate performances could play a heightened role on election day. Their next match-up is on October 9.
"I think Hillary Clinton has got to do what she did in large part, but she needs a much better answer on the trade issue...she needs a little bit of a better defense of the Obama administration," Lichtman said.
He had starker advice for her opponent: "Donald Trump needs a complete turn around. He cannot debate again the way he debated in this first debate."
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