- Title: Bookies' odds on Brexit firmly favour "remain"
- Date: 22nd May 2016
- Summary: VARIOUS OF COMPUTER SCREEN AND EUROPEAN REFERENDUM BETTING ODDS SHOWN ON SCREEN
- Embargoed: 6th June 2016 16:13
- Keywords: British EU referendum Brexit betting odds bookies bookmakers remain
- Location: LONDON, ENGLAND, UK
- City: LONDON, ENGLAND, UK
- Country: United Kingdom
- Topics: Government/Politics
- Reuters ID: LVA0024IX4953
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text:Britain is at a crossroads. The referendum on European Union membership takes place in just one month's time on June 23 - but gamblers are increasingly confident on where to put their money.
The opinion polls predict a very close outcome, but the betting public is firmly siding with voters giving the green light to Britain staying in the EU.
"We've seen 90 percent of all the bets we have taken over the last four weeks have been for "remain"," said Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at bookmakers, Ladbrokes.
Citing the relative closeness of online and phone polls, Shaddick said: "There seems to be a lot of uncertainty here, you would have thought, but not according to the betting public. They are very firmly backing remain."
On Tuesday (May 17), Ladbrokes was offering "remain" odds of 2/7, meaning if a punter placed a seven pound bet ($10), they'd get a profit of two pounds ($2.9) if the country voted to stay in the EU. Odds on a Brexit outcome are at 5/2.
However, the odds had shortened over the weekend, with Ladbrokes and William Hill cutting their odds on "remain" to 1/6, meaning gamblers would get only one pound ($1.45) in profit for every six pounds ($8.7) wagered if Britons vote to stay in the EU.
Shaddick said ever since U.S. President Barack Obama's firm backing of Britain staying in the EU during a visit to London last month, gamblers had been consistently betting on "remain", despite opinion polls stubbornly predicting a much more neck-and-neck contest.
Though the likes of Ladbrokes and scores of other high street bookies might not have the gravitas of polling institutions like YouGov or Ipsos-Mori, the odds they offer can, unlike polls, reflect developments that could affect the outcome of the vote in real-time, enabling market players to make trading decisions fast.
Political gambler, Alastair Meeks, is voting 'in' on June 23, but his personal views won't sway where he puts his money.
"It is entirely possible that I will go in the polling booth and be voting one way and betting the other," he said as he studied the latest Brexit headlines.
Meeks does look at the polls, but after they got it so wrong in the 2014 general election, he also considers many other factors when making his political bets.
"Polls are worth looking at... You've got to look at them, you've got to give them some weight, but if you go in blindly thinking opinion polls are always going to be right, as has been shown repeatedly in the last couple of years, you could come a very serious cropper," he said.
Meeks, a lawyer, has an analytical attitude to his bets. With still four weeks to go until polling day, he's not quite ready to come down on either side just yet - but suspects it will be for "remain".
Bookies say the EU referendum is set to be the biggest British political event on record, with the repercussions of the outcome of the historic poll set to reverberate through the nation's political landscape for months afterwards. - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
- Copyright Notice: (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2016. Open For Restrictions - http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp
- Usage Terms/Restrictions: Video restrictions: parts of this video may require additional clearances. Please see ‘Business Notes’ for more information.