- Title: Bookies' odds on Brexit firmly favour "remain"
- Date: 22nd May 2016
- Summary: LONDON, ENGLAND, UK (MAY 17, 2016) (REUTERS) BLACK TAXIS AND RED BUS PASSING ACROSS EACH OTHER ON ROAD IN FRONT OF LADBROKES BOOKMAKERS PEOPLE WALKING IN FRONT OF LADBROKES TRAFFIC LIGHT IN FRONT OF LADBROKES ON RED, TURNING AMBER, THEN GREEN ARROW PEOPLE SITTING IN FRONT OF TV SCREENS INSIDE BOOKMAKERS BOOKIES' CHALKBOARD, WITH "EU REFERENDUM" WRITTEN ON IT / HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING, LADBROKES, MATTHEW SHADDICK, WALKING TOWARDS BOARD SHADDICK WRITING ON BOARD SHADDICK FILLING IN THE ODDS OF 2/7 FOR "REMAIN" SHADDICK FILLING IN THE ODDS OF 5/2 FOR "LEAVE" SHADDICK WRITING ON BOARD BOARD READING (English): "EU REFERENDUM / 2/7 REMAIN / 5/2 LEAVE / 27 PERCENT CHANCE OF BREXIT" (SOUNDBITE) (English) HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING, LADBROKES, MATTHEW SHADDICK, SAYING: "We've seen 90 percent of all the bets we have taken over the last four weeks have been for remain and that's kind of surprising just how confident the betting market seems to be that this is going to be a remain vote. As you say, the polls are very close, there has been some differences between online and phone polls, but it is quite hard to work out which one is more likely to be correct. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty here, you would have thought, but not according to the betting public. They are very firmly backing "remain"." ODDS ON CHALK BOARD (SOUNDBITE) (English) HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING, LADBROKES, MATTHEW SHADDICK, SAYING: "Well the big one was Obama, when he intervened in the debate, suddenly the betting market shifted quite decisively towards "remain". That's where it has stayed pretty much level since then. But the odd thing is that the polls haven't really changed very much in that time and it doesn't seem to have any impact. But the betting markets have carried on thinking that this is going to towards "remain"." VARIOUS OF POLITICAL GAMBLER, ALASTAIR MEEKS, SEATED IN BETTING SHOP READING NEWSPAPER NEWSPAPER HEADLINE ABOUT BREXIT (SOUNDBITE) (English) POLITICAL GAMBLER, ALASTAIR MEEKS, SAYING: "I shall be voting in the referendum but I try and keep my views on voting completely detached from my views on betting. It is entirely possible that I will go in the polling booth and be voting one way and betting another." SIGN IN BETTING SHOP READING (English): "BE IN IT TO WIN IT" (SOUNDBITE) (English) POLITICAL GAMBLER, ALASTAIR MEEKS, SAYING: "Polls are worth looking at. I think it was (U.S. Democrat) Adlai Stevenson who said opinion polls should be taken but not inhaled and that is absolutely how they should be treated. You've got to look at them, you've got to give them some weight, but if you go in blindly thinking opinion polls are always going to be right, as has been shown repeatedly in the last couple of years, you could come a very serious cropper." STACK OF BETTING SLIPS AND PENS (SOUNDBITE) (English) POLITICAL GAMBLER, ALASTAIR MEEKS, SAYING: "If you are asking me right now where I think objectively the value lies, I would say objectively the value probably lies on the "remain" side, having regard to the preponderance of the evidence. But at the short priced odds that are currently being offered and the risk of things being blown off course at present, it is something where, whilst there may be value. I am not inclined to bet the house just yet. But that decision really might be quite soon." BETTING SLIP BEING FILLED IN WITH THE REMAIN ODDS OF 2/7 CLOSE OF REMAIN ODDS BETTING SLIP BEING FILLED IN WITH THE LEAVE ODDS OF 5/2 CLOSE OF LEAVE ODDS VARIOUS OF THE TWO BETTING SLIPS NEXT TO EACH OTHER (SOUNDBITE) (English) HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING, LADBROKES, MATTHEW SHADDICK, SAYING: "You can bet on the margin of victory for either side: will it be very close? You can bet on whether the Queen is going to publicly come out and back one side or the other. I don't think that's very likely, it is 100/1 shot. And of course there will be all sorts of repercussions from this: will Cameron resign within two or three weeks? That's an 8/1 shot. Will Boris have taken over as prime minister by the end of the year? You can get 6/1 on that happening. So this is going to shake up an awful lot of different betting markets when we know the result on June 24." MAN FILLING IN BETTING SLIP IN BOOKIES
- Embargoed: 6th June 2016 16:13
- Keywords: British EU referendum Brexit betting odds bookies bookmakers remain
- Location: LONDON, ENGLAND, UK
- City: LONDON, ENGLAND, UK
- Country: United Kingdom
- Topics: Government/Politics
- Reuters ID: LVA0014IX4953
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text:Britain is at a crossroads. The referendum on European Union membership takes place in just one month's time on June 23 - but gamblers are increasingly confident on where to put their money.
The opinion polls predict a very close outcome, but the betting public is firmly siding with voters giving the green light to Britain staying in the EU.
"We've seen 90 percent of all the bets we have taken over the last four weeks have been for "remain"," said Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at bookmakers, Ladbrokes.
Citing the relative closeness of online and phone polls, Shaddick said: "There seems to be a lot of uncertainty here, you would have thought, but not according to the betting public. They are very firmly backing remain."
On Tuesday (May 17), Ladbrokes was offering "remain" odds of 2/7, meaning if a punter placed a seven pound bet ($10), they'd get a profit of two pounds ($2.9) if the country voted to stay in the EU. Odds on a Brexit outcome are at 5/2.
However, the odds had shortened over the weekend, with Ladbrokes and William Hill cutting their odds on "remain" to 1/6, meaning gamblers would get only one pound ($1.45) in profit for every six pounds ($8.7) wagered if Britons vote to stay in the EU.
Shaddick said ever since U.S. President Barack Obama's firm backing of Britain staying in the EU during a visit to London last month, gamblers had been consistently betting on "remain", despite opinion polls stubbornly predicting a much more neck-and-neck contest.
Though the likes of Ladbrokes and scores of other high street bookies might not have the gravitas of polling institutions like YouGov or Ipsos-Mori, the odds they offer can, unlike polls, reflect developments that could affect the outcome of the vote in real-time, enabling market players to make trading decisions fast.
Political gambler, Alastair Meeks, is voting 'in' on June 23, but his personal views won't sway where he puts his money.
"It is entirely possible that I will go in the polling booth and be voting one way and betting the other," he said as he studied the latest Brexit headlines.
Meeks does look at the polls, but after they got it so wrong in the 2014 general election, he also considers many other factors when making his political bets.
"Polls are worth looking at... You've got to look at them, you've got to give them some weight, but if you go in blindly thinking opinion polls are always going to be right, as has been shown repeatedly in the last couple of years, you could come a very serious cropper," he said.
Meeks, a lawyer, has an analytical attitude to his bets. With still four weeks to go until polling day, he's not quite ready to come down on either side just yet - but suspects it will be for "remain".
Bookies say the EU referendum is set to be the biggest British political event on record, with the repercussions of the outcome of the historic poll set to reverberate through the nation's political landscape for months afterwards. - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
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