Merkel's Bavarian allies risk losing majority in regional elections

Record ID: 1359932

  • Title: Merkel's Bavarian allies risk losing majority in regional elections
  • Date: 10th October 2018
  • Summary: MUNICH, GERMANY (FILE - SEPTEMBER 22, 2018) (REUTERS) ****WARNING: CONTAINS FLASH PHOTOGRAPHY*** BAVARIAN STATE PREMIER MARKUS SOEDER AT OKTOBERFEST OPENING OKTOBERFEST TABLE (SOUNDBITE) (German) BAVARIAN STATE PREMIER, MARKUS SOEDER, SAYING: "The globally known Oktoberfest is the loveliest calling card Bayern has. I tapped the Hofbraeu tent keg myself for years when I was
  • Embargoed: 24th October 2018 11:51
  • Keywords: Bavarian state elections CSU Bavarian state premier Markus Soeder SPD Greens AfD Germany
  • Location: PUCHHEIM, MUNICH, FRANKFURT, TUTZING, ERFURT, PASSAU + INGOLSTADT, GERMANY
  • City: PUCHHEIM, MUNICH, FRANKFURT, TUTZING, ERFURT, PASSAU + INGOLSTADT, GERMANY
  • Country: Germany
  • Topics: Government/Politics,Elections/Voting
  • Reuters ID: LVA00291HENNR
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: A confectioner in Bavaria is trying to add a sweet touch to what is proving to be a bitter fight for the Bavarian elections. Martin Schoenleben is putting the finishing touches on his election cakes, a tray of delicacies with edible party logos. The Greens and SPD cakes have a certain prominence on the tray, marking a trend which is a brand new experience for the Bavarian electorate.
    Bavaria, famous for BMWs, beer festivals and the Bayern Munich soccer club has for decades been run by the conservative Christian Social Union as it sees fit, ignoring the vagaries of German national politics.
    That may change next month, when an election risks upsetting the party in a development that would also have grave implications for Chancellor Angela Merkel's government in Berlin, where the CSU is an important ally.
    Once poor, Bavaria enjoyed remarkable post-war economic modernization under the CSU while retaining its regional identity - a 'Laptops and Lederhosen' formula that has earned the state-based party a unique role as a powerful conservative force in national politics.
    Now that exceptionalism is under threat.
    At the Oct. 14 state election, the CSU is likely to lose its absolute majority - with which it has ruled Bavaria for most of the post-war period, and which has allowed the party to punch above its weight as a partner in successive German governments.
    The main reason for the slide: the rise of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has divided the electorate and is threatening the Bavarian exceptionalism with which the CSU has for decades been synonymous.
    In response, CSU leaders are trying to revive the feeling that their party represents the essence of Bavaria: a distinct identity backed by economic success that has produced the lowest jobless rate - 2.9 percent - of any German state.
    Beyond the happy beer tent atmosphere of the Oktoberfest the message isn't resonating so well.
    Support for the CSU has slumped to 36 percent from the 47.7 percent it scored at the last Bavarian election in 2013.
    Such a low score next month would mark a dramatic decline from the CSU's peak under Franz Josef Strauss, who led the party to victory in 1974 with 62.1 percent of the vote. As recently as 2003, it still enjoyed 60.7 percent support.
    This summer, CSU leaders pushed their alliance with the CDU close to breaking point by demanding a harder line on immigration - a lurch to the right in response to AfD's gains - before switching course and trying to reclaim the center ground.
    The flip-flopping is dividing the CSU's traditional broad base of support. Some moderates, unhappy at the party's move to the right over immigration, are turning to the ecologist Greens, which enjoy 15 percent support. Hardliners are drawn to the AfD, currently polling 14 percent.
    The CSU has been here before. In 1954, it lost to a coalition led by the left-leaning Social Democrats, but regained power in 1957. In 2008, the CSU lost its absolute majority but won it back in 2013.
  • Copyright Holder: FILE REUTERS (CAN SELL)
  • Copyright Notice: (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018. Open For Restrictions - http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp
  • Usage Terms/Restrictions: None
Register