As Ukraine and Russia hold steadfast, NATO finds new life at conflict's 6-month mark

Record ID: 1686609

  • Title: As Ukraine and Russia hold steadfast, NATO finds new life at conflict's 6-month mark
  • Date: 23rd August 2022
  • Summary: WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES (AUGUST 20, 2022) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) SENIOR NON-RESIDENT FELLOW AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, ANGELA STENT, SAYING: "The other thing the U.S. has to think about in all of this is not taking actions that strengthen this Russian-Chinese relationship. I mean, Putin has made the choice now to be China's junior partner, certainly, and to turn away from the West, and I think it's probably wise not to do too much to push them even closer together."
  • Embargoed: 6th September 2022 11:23
  • Keywords: ANGELA STENT NATO-UKRAINE ORYSIA LUTSEVYCH UKRAINE-RUSSIA
  • Location: VARIOUS LOCATIONS
  • City: VARIOUS LOCATIONS
  • Country: Ukraine
  • Topics: Conflicts/War/Peace,Europe,Military Conflicts
  • Reuters ID: LVA00B967920082022RP1
  • Aspect Ratio: 16:9
  • Story Text: EDITORS PLEASE NOTE THIS EDIT CONTAINS GRAPHIC IMAGES IN SHOTS 13-15
    The bombardment of Ukrainian cities by Russian forces has consolidated the will and resolve of the Ukrainian people to continue fighting and has brought new life to NATO, according to Russia experts who spoke to Reuters as the conflict hits the six-month mark.
    Russia launched an what it called a "special military operation" in Ukraine on February 24, which it says aims to demilitarise Ukraine and protect Russian-speakers on land that President Vladimir Putin says historically belongs to Russia.
    It is the largest attack on a European country since World War Two.
    Ukraine, which shook off rule from Moscow when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, and Western nations call the conflict an unprovoked war of conquest.
    Neither side shows any sign of laying down arms and brokering a peace deal, Orysia Lutsevych, the head of London think tank Chatham House's Ukraine Forum, told Reuters.
    The war has unified NATO, said Angela Stent, a senior non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of "Putin's War: Russia Against the West and with the Rest".
    Stent says the United States, Britain, Poland and the Baltic states show steadfast support for Ukraine and are working to rally member countries where public opinion polls show signs of war fatigue as inflation, energy prices and supply shortages ramp up pressure to curb support for Ukraine among other NATO states.
    Pressure in countries like Germany and France, where some far-right deputies have opposed Russian sanctions, is likely to increase as winter energy costs grow amid a reduction in Russian oil imports, Stent added.
    While this could increase calls for a negotiated settlement, Stent believed that media coverage of alleged Russian atrocities, reports of civilian attacks and fear of a nuclear incident will bolster NATO arguments for continued economic and military support of Ukraine.
    Lutsevych said the Russian onslaught and alleged war atrocities were propelling Ukrainians to remain steadfast and unwilling to give territorial concessions in exchange for peace .
    Assistance from Western countries to boost Ukraine's military capabilities has gained momentum over the six-month period, as confidence grew that Ukrainians themselves could repel Russian forces, Lutsevych said.
    But, she argues, the West was deliberately sending supplies and funds at a slow pace to give either an "offramp to Russia" or to slow down Russian forces without total defeat.
    In August, Western countries committed more than 1.5 billion euros ($1.55 billion) in cash, equipment and training to boost Ukraine's military capabilities as the Biden administration prepares about $775 million of additional military aid, sources have told Reuters, bringing the total U.S. military aid sent to Ukraine since February to $10.6 billion
    With a renewed NATO uniting the U.S. and its European allies against Russia and China, Stent feels the U.S. has successfully kept China out of the conflict by warning Beijing that its involvement would incur sanctions similar to those that have been imposed on Russia.
    China, Stent said, has repeated the Russian narrative of the war but has been careful not to violate sanctions in order not to jeopardise its economic interests with the West.
    Both regional experts anticipate a protracted war.
    Aside from deals on humanitarian issues like the lifting of blockades on grain shipments, goodwill negotiations were unlikely to take place unless fighting slows and the Kremlin changes tact, Lutsevych said, while Stent predicted that, barring a major accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the war would continue into 2023.
    (Production: Lucy Marks, Arlene Eiras)
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