- Title: The War in Gaza has become an electoral 'flashpoint' , says political analyst
- Date: 29th February 2024
- Summary: ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA, UNITED STATES (FEBRUARY 28, 2024) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) HAMLINE UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, DAVID SCHULTZ, SAYING: "About every 30 to 40 years, political scientists note that there are some elections that are what they call critical realignments, that involve a shuffling around of constituencies, a shift in terms of public policy positions. And we started seeing that with Obama. We started seeing the movement of of college educated suburban whites who historically voted Republican moving over to the Democratic Party. We started seeing a shifting away of the working class from from the Democrats over to Republicans. So I think we're in the middle of this maybe multi-election reshifting of the electoral alignment in the United States. And and Gaza, Gaza just sort of becomes what, this event that stands out maybe for Arab Americans or Palestinians Americans, that becomes the, 'All right. I've had enough with the Democrats. It's time to move, to move on and find somebody else.' Now, whether that means they're going to become reliable Republicans, it's not clear. Could they become a swing voter? Possibly, yes.” DEARBORN HEIGHTS, MICHIGAN, UNITED STATES (FEBRUARY 28, 2024) (REUTERS) VARIOUS BOXES OF FRUIT OUTSIDE GROCERY STORE (SOUNDBITE) (English) FARAJALAH SAGHER, DEARBORN RESIDENT, SAYING: "I hope is gonna be Trump is gonna win in Michigan, because I like it, that’s all I wanna know because he is a good man, that’s it." JOURNALIST (OFF-CAMERA): 'What about him do you like?' SAGHER: "Well he is a businessman he knows what’s he is doing when he was in the job, I don’t think there was any war all over the world.” EXTERIOR OF GROCERY STORE ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA, UNITED STATES (FEBRUARY 28, 2024) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) HAMLINE UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, DAVID SCHULTZ, SAYING: "Four years ago, young people came out in record numbers to support Joe Biden over Donald Trump. But this year, if we look at polls nationwide, they're at best lukewarm about Joe Biden. You know, some of it may be age, but some of it is also, as we're starting to see also in polls, about his stance on Gaza. (WHITE FLASH) And I think, this this comes at a probably a dismay for Joe Biden, who was probably not expecting that this was going to be such a a flashpoint issue for him to deal with.”
- Embargoed: 14th March 2024 03:30
- Keywords: 2024 Arab Donald Trump Election Gaza Joe Biden Muslim
- Location: VARIOUS
- City: VARIOUS
- Country: US
- Topics: North America,Government/Politics,Elections/Voting
- Reuters ID: LVA003417728022024RP1
- Aspect Ratio: 16:9
- Story Text: When Dearborn Heights resident Ahmed Alhumadi voted in the Michigan Democratic primary, he looked at his options and he felt he only had one choice. He voted for "uncommitted," joining a massive protest vote against President Joe Biden over his support of Israel's military campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
"I put my opinion uncommitted because of the Gaza situation. We need a president who can help make peace in the Middle East which is good but so far we don’t see anything from Biden and hopefully he will come to his mind and change his position," he said.
With 95% of the votes counted, Biden won Tuesday's (February 27) primary with 81%, but 13%, or more than 100,000 people, cast "uncommitted" ballots in a state where a large Arab American community and other progressive Democrats vented their anger at Biden's support of an Israeli offensive in which tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed.
That anger has grown as deaths climbed in Gaza, famine looms and much of the 2.3 million population became homeless.
Just over 101,000 voters cast uncommitted ballots, far more than the 10,000 organizers said they sought and prompting some to speak of plans for a nationwide movement. The votes are enough to send two 'uncommitted' delegates to the Democrats' national convention in August.
Hamline University Political Science Professor David Schultz said Biden cannot afford to lose Michigan in the general election if he hopes to win re-election.
Michigan has some 200,000 Arab American voters, more than Biden's slim 155,000 margin of victory in 2020. Trump won Michigan over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes.
Arab Americans and Muslims are united in their support of Palestinians, according to Christopher Newport University Assistant Professor Youssef Chouhoud who said the issue may send many of the voters to the Republican Party in the long run, even if they're unlikely to vote for Trump, who is not seen to have a more favorable policy toward Palestinians.
Schultz said it may become part of what political scientists call a critical realignment, where key demographic groups shift political allegiance. Arab-Americans and Muslim-Americans may become important swing voters if they continue to band together to wield their political influence.
With many young progressives voicing concern over the War in Gaza, the issue could be critically important not only in key swing states with high numbers of Arab American voters, but also in states with large university populations, such as Wisconsin, Schultz said.
With some opinion polls showing the likely Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead in a head-to-head matchup in the Michigan this time, Biden's reelection campaign faces an arduous task of uniting his party.
Both Schultz and Chouhoud said it may be too late for some voters who voted 'uncommitted,' but some may still be wiling to vote for Biden in November.
Michigan organizers want Biden to push for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and halt aid to Israel.
Biden, 81, faces low general approval ratings and concern about his age, as does Trump, 77. If Trump is reelected, he is expected to be a strong supporter of Israel and its right-wing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Schultz said that the situation in Gaza is likely to remain an issue throughout the election, and could even rear up again in October, with Netanyahu providing an "October surprise" or unexpected last-minute action that could prove untimely for Biden's re-election efforts.
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