- Title: USA/FILE: Report reveals cost of U.S. wars close to 4 trillion dollars
- Date: 30th June 2011
- Summary: NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK, UNITED STATES (RECENT) (REUTERS) CHAPTER FROM REPORT DETAILING THE JOB OPPORTUNITY COST OF WAR GRAPH FROM COSTS OF WAR REPORT DEPICTING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES LOST AS A RESULT OF WAR (SOUNDBITE) (English) NETA CRAWFORD, CO-DIRECTOR OF REPORT AND PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT BOSTON UNIVERSITY, SAYING: "Approximately 8.3 jobs are created b
- Embargoed: 15th July 2011 13:00
- Keywords:
- Location: Usa
- Country: USA
- Topics: International Relations
- Reuters ID: LVA4KIGXN8QYKUMMH4BGMJG8H3PU
- Story Text: When U.S. President Barack Obama cited the cost of war as one reason for cutting the number of troops in Afghanistan, he referred to a $1 trillion U.S. dollar price tag.
The sum may seem staggering, but a new study released on Wednesday (June 29) estimates that the true cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as engagement in Pakistan, could reach at least double Obama's figure -- with many billions more likely to be added to the U.S. debt load by the time U.S. troops return home.
Brown University professor Catherine Lutz is the co-director of the "Costs of War" report.
"The reasonable estimate is approximately $4 trillion (USD) for the war, up to today and including some of the future costs that we're obligated to pay for veterans care. In addition, another $1 trillion (USD) in interest payments on the debt, we estimate will be required through 2020," Lutz explains.
Compiled by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the "Costs of War" report brought together more than 20 academics to uncover the expense of war in lives and dollars -- a daunting task given the inconsistent recording of lives lost and what the report called opaque and sloppy accounting by the U.S. Congress and the Pentagon.
The report underlines the extent to which war will continue to stretch the U.S. federal budget, which is already on an unsustainable course due to an aging American population and skyrocketing healthcare costs.
The research ostensibly calculates the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. that killed nearly 3,000 people and the subsequent U.S.-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq plus an engagement in Pakistan.
"The numbers of people who died in this war are much higher than the American public realizes," Lutz says.
"There have been many, many deaths in the military and civilian sectors that haven't been adequately counted or recognized. So we've tried to put that all together," she adds.
According to the report, between 224,000 and 258,000 people have died directly from warfare, including 125,000 civilians in Iraq.
Many more have died indirectly, from the loss of clean drinking water, healthcare, and nutrition. An additional 365,000 have been wounded and 7.8 million people -- equal to the combined population of Connecticut and Kentucky -- have been displaced.
Furthermore, Lutz explains that another critical finding of the report is that the financial costs of the war are also much higher than people recognize.
"People have been focusing overly much on the Pentagon's special allocation for the wars and they haven't been looking at things like the interest payment on the debt that was incurred in order to raise that money. They haven't been looking at future obligated costs to veterans for their healthcare…and a number of other parts of the budget that have to be counted to say what this war cost," she explains.
Specific war spending over the past 10 years, when expressed in 2011 dollars, comes to $1.3 trillion (USD), the "Costs of War" project found. When it comes to accounting for all the expenses, that is merely the beginning.
One still needs to add interest, homeland security spending and war-related foreign aid.
The report makes a low estimate of $2.3 trillion (USD) spent so far and a moderate estimate of $2.7 trillion (USD) just out of the U.S. Treasury. The directors of the report refrained from making a high estimate.
When adding obligations to care for wounded veterans and the social costs that veterans and military families have endured, the toll climbs to $3.2 trillion to $3.99 trillion.
But the wars won't end tomorrow. When estimating the costs projected out to 2020, the total reaches $3.7 trillion to $4.4 trillion.
Those numbers don't include approximately $1 trillion of interest on war spending to 2020, billions of dollars in aid promised to Afghanistan for reconstruction as well as undisclosed line items such as the cost of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan.
Lutz notes that unlike the Vietnam war, where many soldiers were shot and killed, in Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have suffered traumatic injuries with lifelong consequences, such as Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), traumatic brain injuries and long-term disabilities resulting from explosions.
"There is a whole generation of people who are going to need medical care for those kinds of injuries far into the future and that those costs won't peak for 40 years is really crucial for understanding what our future looks like," she says.
To date, veterans who served in Iraq and Afghanistan have had health or disability claims that have amounted to some $32 billion (USD).
Iraq war veteran Specialist Samuel Angert is one of those soldiers. Angert was partially paralyzed and lost 30 percent of his skull after a vehicle he was driving was struck by an IED while on patrol. The Second Lieutenant sitting to Angert's right, his friend Joseph David Fortin, was killed upon impact.
After two years of rehabilitation at the Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., the 22-year-old Purple Heart recipient has made a remarkable recovery and has regained mobility on the left side of his body. He is awaiting a fourth surgery that will attempt to reconstruct his skull.
In spite of his injuries and the death of his friend, Angert says the costs of war are worthwhile.
"On a soldier's perspective, on a wounded soldier's perspective, I would just say in my shoes, yeah it was worth it. It's worth it to lose a guy and accomplish the mission," he says.
Angert wishes he could reunite with the soldiers of the First Cavalry Division as they prepare to redeploy in July.
"I wish I could be with my guys when they're getting ready to deploy now in July…even with everything, I don't regret it for a second."
The "Costs of War" report also analyzes the indirect economic impact of the wars, by looking at the consequences of financing the war almost entirely through deficit spending.
Researchers estimated that since the start of the wars, U.S. defense spending apart from the special war appropriations has increased to between $326 billion (USD) and $652 billion (USD).
Report co-director and Boston University professor Neta Crawford, says that while the funds spent to produce aircraft, ammunition and other goods is a source of job creation, it comes at a high opportunity cost to the American public.
"Approximately 8.3 jobs are created by every $1 million (USD) of spending for military jobs. Military related jobs. And we know that approximately 15 direct and indirect jobs are created by spending on education so when you do the math it turns out you get more jobs from spending on education or healthcare or weatherization," she explains."
"So if you think about the annual budget of these wars, let's say it averages $130 billion (USD) each year for the last 10 years, then you get more than 900,000 jobs in education could have been created."
While Obama's announcement to withdraw 33,000 troops by the end of next summer will impact on the number of defense sector jobs, Richard K. Sylvester of Aerospace Industries Association, says he doesn't foresee a dramatic economic impact on the industry.
"There's still a threat out there and we need to be prepared for that," Sylvester says.
"We also need to be prepared for what comes in the future. This is an industry that takes some time to produce programs, can't be turned around immediately. We need to have an industrial base that is prepared to do that and so we need to invest in those things."
Even after Obama's planned withdrawal from Afghanistan, there would still be nearly 70,000 troops left -- about twice the number as when he took office in 2009. The report estimates that the cost will be roughly $1.2 million U.S. dollars per soldier per year.
Nearly all 50,000 troops in Iraq could be out by December of this year, but like the Afghan numbers, they could also be subject to review.
The report arrives as Congress debates how to cut a U.S. deficit projected at $1.4 trillion this year, roughly a 10th of which can be attributed to direct war spending. What did the United States gain for its trillions? Strategically, the results for the United States are mixed.
Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein are dead, but Iraq and Afghanistan are far from stable democracies. Iran has gained influence in the Gulf and the Taliban, though ousted from government, remain a viable military force in Afghanistan.
Economically, the results are also mixed. War spending may be adding half a percentage point a year to growth in the gross domestic product but that has been more than offset by the negative effects of deficit spending, the report concludes.
Some U.S. government reports have attempted to assess the costs of war, notably a March 2011 Congressional Research Service report that estimated post-Sept. 11 war funding at $1.4 trillion through 2012. The Congressional Budget Office projected war costs through 2021 at $1.8 trillion.
A ground-breaking private estimate was published in the 2008 book "The Three Trillion Dollar War," by Linda Bilmes, a member of the Watson Institute team, and Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. That work revealed how much cost was added by interest on deficit spending and medical care for veterans.
The report draws on those sources and pieces together many others for a more comprehensive picture.
The report also makes special note of Pakistan, a front not generally mentioned along with Iraq and Afghanistan. War has probably killed more people in Pakistan than in neighboring Afghanistan, the report concludes.
Questions none - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
- Copyright Notice: (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2015. Open For Restrictions - http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp
- Usage Terms/Restrictions: None