ARMENIA: Failed Moscow-mediated talks on Nagorno-Karabakh led to fears both in Armenia and Azerbaijan of a new armed conflict over the breakaway region

Record ID: 218603

  • Title: ARMENIA: Failed Moscow-mediated talks on Nagorno-Karabakh led to fears both in Armenia and Azerbaijan of a new armed conflict over the breakaway region
  • Date: 8th July 2011
  • Summary: STEPANAKERT, NAGORNO-KARABAKH, AZERBAIJAN (FILE - OCTOBER, 2009) (ORIGINALLY 4:3) (REUTERS) VARIOUS OF TOP VIEWS OF CITY GOVERNMENT BUILDING WITH NAGORNO-KARABAKH FLAG NATIONAL FLAG
  • Embargoed: 23rd July 2011 13:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Armenia, Armenia
  • Country: Armenia
  • Topics: International Relations,Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVA3LL2AEC7Z6RE9M8GPX54ZNA23
  • Story Text: The world powers that brought the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan together for talks on a thorny territorial dispute hoped they would take a crucial step toward peace.
    Instead, the failure to agree a blueprint for a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict appears to have brought the Caucasus neighbours one step closer to a new war in a volatile energy corridor linking the Caspian Sea region to the West.
    An international push for a peace deal, trumped for nearly 20 years by bellicose rhetoric and resistance on both sides to even perceived concessions, could lose steam as elections threaten to change the geopolitical landscape.
    The Caucasus Program Director at the International Crisis Group, Lawrence Sheets, said that with every year, with every month in which the conflict remains unresolved there is an "increasingly shaky situation ... where any number of things could spark an accidental conflict".
    Armenian-backed forces wrested Nagorno-Karabakh from Azeri control in the deadliest war to break out as the Soviet Union collapsed two decades ago. When the conflict ended in a ceasefire in 1994, 30,000 had been killed and about a million had been driven from their homes.
    Seventeen years later, a de facto government runs the rugged territory and surrounding lands with support from Armenia, but without recognition from any country of its independence claim.
    Mediation by U.N. Security Council powerhouses Russia, France and the United States has produced many meetings between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan but no final agreement on the main elements of a resolution, let alone a peace deal.
    Skirmishes and sniper fire kill soldiers regularly on both sides of the frozen front-line.
    Azerbaijan, angry over losing control of a chunk of its territory, has persistently threatened to take it back by force if no resolution is reached.
    The latest warning came after Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia's Serzh Sarksyan after a meeting in Russia dashed hopes for agreement on a framework document, called the Basic Principles, that would set the stage for settlement talks.
    The Azeri Foreign ministry said through its representative, Elkhan Polukho that there is updated document known as Madrid Principles, which was prepared by co-chairs (of the Minsk group) and which was offered to Armenia and Azerbaijan. "And the work over the document should continue," Polukho said. "Azerbaijan has already expressed its opinion on the document, but Armenia, unfortunately, has not voiced its clear stand on the provisions offered by the document during all these years."
    But the head of the "West-East " research centre, Arastun Orujlu, said that that a military conflict from the Armenian or the Azeri side is impossible at the moment. "It (an armed confrontation) is only possible if for this or that reason, Russia's military establishment, which has a big influence on the conflict itself and even a bigger influence on Armenia, would become interested in such a confrontation. If it gets interested in it, I would not rule it (the war) out."
    On the streets of Baku, hopes for a peaceful solution of the conflict are not very high, as Baku resident, Elmin Akhunndov says: "Azerbaijan wanted to solve this (conflict) peacefully for so many times. But as I see from the last meeting, the Kazan meeting, it has become impossible now. I think it is impossible to solve (the conflict) peacefully any more."
    In Baku, Aliyev staged Azerbaijan's biggest military parade since the Soviet collapse, announced an increase in defence spending and vowed to use "any possible means" to restore its territorial integrity.
    Aliyev can exploit the leverage he has over international mediators wary of a new Caucasus war after Russia's conflict with pro-Western Georgia in 2008, and must also satisfy Azeris hungry for assurance their humiliation will be redressed.
    "As for the risk of war - it existed, still exists, and it will exist until Baku rejects its strong-arm policy approach which it uses from the very beginning (of the conflict)," says Armenia'a deputy Foreign minister, Shavarsh Kocharyan.
    But analysts say the threats do not mean Azerbaijan is on the verge of restarting hostilities that could draw in its ally Turkey, a NATO member, as well as Russia, which has a military base and strong ties with Armenia.
    They add the lack of progress in talks stokes tension which could easily spiral out of control, however, and Azerbaijan's determination could harden as time passes without a deal.
    "The real reason, or the short answer it (conflict) has not been resolved is that the two sides are simply too far apart and are looking at the conflict from two polar opposite views," says Richard Giragosian, the director of the Armenian Centre for National and International Studies in Yerevan. "One party, Azerbaijan, is approaching it in the question of territorial integrity and the violation of boarders, Armenia, on the other hand, looking at it from an equally solid principle of self determination. The problem here though is - without the political will in the countries themselves as parties to the conflict, there can be little that mediation or the international community can really do."
    "It may take a second war to actually finally resolve this conflict. The first war or battle if we will, may have not has been as conclusive as many believe. Unfortunately, it may take another war before the conflict exhausts itself."
    With tensions high, observers say the chances of success in the internationally mediated talks are shrinking as elections approach in all three mediating nations as well as Armenia, which means several of the key players could be out of office.
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