USA: Barack Obama's race may not play a huge role in this year's Presidential election, experts say

Record ID: 311286

  • Title: USA: Barack Obama's race may not play a huge role in this year's Presidential election, experts say
  • Date: 29th October 2008
  • Summary: (AM) NEW YORK, NEW YORK, UNITED STATES (RECENT - OCTOBER 23, 2008) (REUTERS) TIMES SQUARE STREET SCENE (SOUNDBITE) (English) JOHN GERARDI, NEW YORKER, SAYING: "I don't believe in the so-called Bradley Effect. Not anymore. It might have happened to that guy in Los Angeles ages ago, but I don't think that's a possibility now." (SOUNDBITE) (English) FRANK TOWNSEND, NEW YORKER, SAYING: "I hate to say this, but the more uneducated white person might go in that cage and say 'Well, I just can't vote for a black guy. Not this time around.' But if they can't vote now, then when and for who?" (SOUNDBITE) (English) SAYQWAUN GEORGE, NEW YORKER, SAYING: "Maybe. There's a lot of people talking about how Obama could get shot."
  • Embargoed: 13th November 2008 12:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Usa
  • Country: USA
  • Topics: Domestic Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVA3F1LR86P3GFPN5XAOCYKLF40
  • Story Text: What role will Barack Obama's race play in the 2008 Presidential Election? The polls say 'not much', but not everyone agrees.
    The issue of race is a topic many people in the United States politely prefer not to talk about in public. Given the country's complicated and often ugly racial history, many political pundits and observers are debating what role race may play in this year's Presidential election.
    For the first time ever in the history of the United States, an African-American man has won the nomination of a major political party, and now, Barack Obama could become the first black president of the United States.
    An extraordinary achievement given that in 1961, when Barack Obama was born, most black people in the United States were prevented from voting, either by law, intimidation or threats of violence.
    While the issue of race in the United States is still uneasy conversation, during this year's Presidential campaign, talk of race and ethnicity has largely been avoided by the candidates, but not so by potential voters or those opposed to an Obama Presidency.
    Over the summer, Obama acknowledged his skeptics during a campaign speech in Springfield, Missouri.
    "Nobody really thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they're going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he's not patriotic enough. He's got a funny name. You know, he doesn't look like all those other presidents on those dollar bills, you know. He's risky," Obama told supporters.
    Recently, Obama's rival, John McCain was stunned when his supporters shouted "terrorist!" after he asked "Who is the real Obama?" McCain has even been placed in the difficult position of defending the man he is trying to defeat. During a recent town hall meeting in Lakeville, Minnesota one woman expressed her reservations about Obama. She said, "I can't trust Obama. I have read about him and he's not, he's not, he's an Arab." McCain responded by saying, "No ma'am. No ma'am. He's a decent family man, citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues."
    But if race will be a deciding factor in this year's presidential race, it is not showing up on various polls seeking to measure current racial attitudes.
    According to a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released a little more than one week before election day, race will not play a major factor in the Presidential election. Seventy percent of Americans questioned in the survey said race will not be a factor. Five percent of those polled said race will be the single most important factor, and eleven percent said race is one of several important factors.
    Among the other important factors on the minds of potential voters this year is the slowing economy, rising unemployment, the collapse of several Wall Street firms and the emergency bailout of several others.
    Rogan Kersh, elections expert and professor of public service at New York University's Wagner Graduate School of Public Service says concerns about the economy have eclipsed concerns about race.
    "I think race will play less of a role in the 2008 election than one might have ever have expected with a black candidate as one of the two party nominees and less than we might have expected six months ago, three months ago, before Wall Street fell on its face," Kersh says.
    The professor adds that since Obama stepped into the spotlight, potential voters have had enough time to get to know him and his message.
    "This guy has been either the presumptive nominee or at least one of the two front-runners for about a year. That's a long time, I think even for people, including independent voters to sit and think 'All right, if I had a problem with this candidate because of his or her race, there's a lot of other issues I better pay attention to' is where a lot of people are at this point.
    So the kind of raw, naked racial appeal that has such a sad, tragic aspect in this country's history seems to be really muted as we head into the final turn in 2008," Kersh said.
    Like many political polls, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey shows Obama has a ten point lead over McCain going into the final week of campaigning.
    But despite the encouraging poll results, some people are skeptical that the polls are an accurate reflection of voter attitudes and are wondering what role the so-called "Bradley Effect" will have on this year's Presidential race.
    The "Bradley Effect" was named after Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, who in 1982 lost his bid for California governor despite nearly every pre-election poll showing him to have a significant lead over his white opponent. Other black candidates have also experienced similar disappointing election day results. In 1989, polls projected a wide lead for Douglas Wilder, but come election day, Wilder narrowly became Governor of Virginia by wining with less than one percent. Also in 1989, New York Mayor David Dinkins was predicted to win by double digits, but come election day, he won the office by about two percent of the vote.
    Many people believe the discrepancy between pre-election polls and election day results is caused by people telling pollsters that they will vote for the black candidate, but once alone in the voting booth, instead choose the white candidate. Others suggest the disparity could be the result of bad polling and survey techniques.
    Professor Kersh doesn't buy into the theory of the "Bradley Effect". He says, the theory is outdated and does not apply to Barack Obama, and offered his own new theory.
    "It seems more plausible to me that in 2010 and 2012 and years from now, we will be talking about the 'Obama Effect of 2008' where an African American candidate on election day outperformed his pole predictions going into that general election as opposed to 'Oh my goodness, here's another example of the Bradley Effect.' I've seen these studies too that say you gotta discount Obama's share of the vote by somewhere between three or four, even six points, but those are based on results from the late 1980s and early 1990s. These are actual examples of Barack Obama running against a white candidate and in twelve of 32 states, 40 percent of the time, as opposed to less than ten percent of the time, where there was a 'Bradley Effect', actually doing better, in some cases much better than was predicted."
    Kersh refers to a study by the University of Washington which analyzed the voting patterns during the state by state Democratic primary elections earlier this year. According to that study, Barack Obama did better that expected in twelve of the 32 states holding Democratic primaries and performed worse than expected in only three states. The University of Washington found what it called the "Reverse-Bradley Effect", meaning current election polls may be underestimating Barack Obama's support by three or four percent.
    In Manhattan's Times Square, New Yorker John Gerardi says he doubts the "Bradley Effect" will play a role in this year's election. "I don't believe in the so-called 'Bradley Effect'. Not anymore. It might have happened to that guy in Los Angeles ages ago, but I don't think that's a possibility now," Gerardi said.
    Fellow New Yorker Frank Townsend says he is skeptical about some white people's willingness to vote for a black man.
    "I hate to say this, but the more uneducated white person might go in that cage and say 'Well, I just can't vote for a black guy. Not this time around.' But if they can't vote now, then when and for who?" Townsend said.
    New Yorker Sayqwaun George says he fears Obama's race may lead to his death.
    "People are already talking about him getting shot," he said.
    While race and ethnicity may be a factor in this year's Presidential election, according to the polls and the political experts, it likely will not be the deciding factor. And come election day on November 4th, the world will be watching to see if the United States is indeed willing to vote for a black President and if the country is ready to live in a post-racial society.
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