- Title: IMF-OIL/MIDDLE EAST Oil export losses to reach $300 billion in Middle East
- Date: 21st January 2015
- Summary: WASHINGTON D.C., UNITED STATES (JANUARY 21, 2015) (REUTERS) MASOOD AHMED, HEAD OF THE IMF'S MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT, TAKING HIS SEAT AT NEWS CONFERENCE REPORTER ASKING QUESTION REPORTER LISTENING (SOUNDBITE) (English) MASOOD AHMED, HEAD OF THE IMF'S MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT, SAYING: "The country's the of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the GCC, which are most strongly affected by the oil decline, their export earnings are expected to decline this year by about 300 billion dollars which is about a fifth of their economy compared to the projections that we were making in October." WIDE OF AHMED, LISTENING AS REPORTER ASKS QUESTION REPORTER WITH HIS LAPTOP REPORTER ASKING QUESTION (SOUNDBITE) (English) MASOOD AHMED, HEAD OF THE IMF'S MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT, SAYING: "Our current expectation is that while there will indeed be some reduction in terms of government spending this year compared to what they were planning, this will be done in a measured way. And, as a result, the impact of the lower oil price on overall economic activity and growth in these countries is going to be much smaller than the impact on their budgets or on their balance of payments. So, they absorb the impact on their budgets and their balance of payments by using the reserves that they have built up and this will then mitigate the effect on growth. And in fact, in the Middle East and North Africa, we expect the oil exporters to post growth rate this year of about 3 percent. And 3 percent is actually slightly higher than the 2.7 percent of growth that they had in 2014. So it's a slight improvement in terms of the growth rate but it's still one percentage point lower than what we were projecting for 2015 back in October." CAMERAMAN WIDE OF AHMED WRAPPING UP
- Embargoed: 5th February 2015 12:00
- Keywords:
- Topics: General
- Reuters ID: LVA6R68EN6SL3UL4KR52XYEMQMD
- Story Text: Losses from lower oil exports should sap up to $300 billion USD from economies in the Middle East and Central Asia this year, as countries in the region adjust to falling crude prices, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday (January 21).
Economies that are particularly dependent on oil exports, including Qatar, Iraq, Libya and Saudi Arabia, will be hit hardest by the more than 50 percent decline in petroleum prices, the IMF said in an update to its outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia.
Oil prices are now hovering near six-year lows amid expectations of an abundance of supply tied to unexpectedly high production of U.S. shale crude.
The IMF said, however, that falling crude prices will not translate immediately into major gains for oil importers in the Middle East and Central Asia, which have been hurt by the slowing growth prospects of key trading partners in the euro zone and Russia.
The IMF this week cut its forecasts for global economic growth to 3.5 percent for 2015 compared with an October outlook of 3.8 percent, and significantly lowered projections for oil exporters Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.
"The country's the of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the GCC, which are most strongly affected by the oil decline, their export earnings are expected to decline this year by about 300 billion dollars which is about a fifth of their economy compared to the projections that we were making in October," said Masood Ahmed, head of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department.
"Our current expectation is that while there will indeed be some reduction in terms of government spending this year compared to what they were planning, this will be done in a measured way," he added. "And, as a result, the impact of the lower oil price on overall economic activity and growth in these countries is going to be much smaller than the impact on their budgets or on their balance of payments."
The IMF said nearly every exporting country in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year because of the oil price shock, which prompted the IMF to downgrade the region's growth prospects by as much as 1 percentage point compared with its October forecasts, to 3.4 percent for 2015.
The losses are likely to reach 21 percentage points of gross domestic product in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or about $300 billion. In non-GCC countries and in Central Asia, the expected losses are $90 billion and $35 billion this year, the IMF said.
Oil importers will see smaller gains, compared to exporters' losses, as their economies are less dependent on the price of petroleum, the IMF said. Morocco, Lebanon and Mauritania are expected to gain most from falling crude prices, while Lebanon and Egypt are likely to see improved fiscal balances, Ahmed said.
The IMF expects oil-importing countries in the Middle East to save most of the windfall, boosting their current account positions by 1 percentage point of GDP, compared with what the IMF forecast in October.
Central Asian importers should see worse external positions this year, compared with the October forecasts, because of lower demand from Russia and China, he added. - Copyright Holder: REUTERS
- Copyright Notice: (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2015. Open For Restrictions - http://about.reuters.com/fulllegal.asp
- Usage Terms/Restrictions: None
