POLAND: Polls show Polish presidential candidates running neck and neck ahead of election

Record ID: 807759

  • Title: POLAND: Polls show Polish presidential candidates running neck and neck ahead of election
  • Date: 3rd July 2010
  • Summary: WARSAW, POLAND (JULY 2, 2010) (REUTERS) WARSAW'S PALACE OF CULTURE VARIOUS EXTERIORS OF PRESIDENTIAL PALACE VARIOUS OF WARSAW STREET SCENE POLISH AND EU FLAGS FLYING WARSAW STREET VARIOUS OF MONEY EXCHANGE OFFICE VARIOUS EXTERIORS OF ING BANK PEOPLE IN STREET SHOP EXTERIOR VARIOUS OF PEOPLE IN SHOPS, SALE SIGNS POSTER OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE JAROSLAW KACZYNSKI
  • Embargoed: 18th July 2010 13:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Poland
  • Country: Poland
  • Topics: Domestic Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVAESAS5EXIY2DWM6TAV01COAE9Z
  • Story Text: Polls show Polish presidential candidates running neck and neck ahead of second round of the country's presidential elections this weekend.
    Poland's presidential race between business-friendly Bronislaw Komorowski and conservative Jaroslaw Kaczynski is too close to call ahead of the final round of voting this Sunday (July 4), surveys showed on Friday (July 2).
    Komorowski, candidate of the ruling Civic Platform who has so far been seen as frontrunner in the election, is now expected to face a tight run-off against Kaczynski, leader of the main opposition conservative Law and Justice.
    The leading Gazeta Wyborcza daily newspaper on Friday quoted some analysts as saying the two rivals may win half the vote each in the second, decisive round of voting, while others predicted Komorowski would win by between three and six percent.
    On Thursday (July 1) evening the Rzeczpospolita daily newspaper published a survey showing Kaczynski and Komorowski each had the definite backing of 45 percent of Poles.
    The paper said the GfK pollster, which conducted the telephone poll among 1,000 people on July 1, believed more of the 10 percent of undecided voters were likely to back Kaczynski, giving him a lead of two percentage points over Komorowski.
    Only the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna daily, which on Friday released a Homo Homini telephone survey conducted among 1,203 Poles, gave Komorowski a lead of 12 percent over Kaczynski.
    Opinion polls in Poland are often criticised for misleading forecasts and they have tended to underestimate support for Kaczynski. Komorowski secured a lead of just five percent, less than forecast, over Kaczynski in the first round in June.
    In Poland, the government holds most power, but the president can propose and veto laws, appoint key state officials and have a say in foreign and security issues.
    Investors would prefer a Komorowski win, expecting him to work smoothly with the market-oriented government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk in curbing Poland's budget deficit and high public debt levels. Komorowski also urges further improvement of Warsaw's relations with its international partners.
    Kaczynski opposes cutting public spending, privatisation and any speedy adoption of the euro. He says Tusk's cabinet is not promoting Poland's national interests internationally and seeks a tougher stance in relations with Russia, among others.
    One economist told Reuters TV on Friday that a Kaczynski's victory and possible use of veto by him, would result in the government's inability to continue with their fiscal reforms.
    "Should Kaczynski win the elections, we can expect that the status quo will be restored. The coalition will blame the presidential veto as their main obstacle to fiscal reforms. Should Komorowski defeat Kaczynski, we can expect only gradual fiscal reforms," said Rafal Benecki from ING Bank Slaski, adding that a win by the twin brother of the late President could also have an effect on the country's currency.
    "The short-term impact of the Kaczynski victory may be a bit weaker zloty but actually this should be shorter-term impact. The final result will be seen when the 2011 budget is composed," he said.
    The election was brought forward by the death of the former president, Jaroslaw Kaczynski's twin brother, Lech, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10.
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