GREECE/FILE: Greek voters angry with austerity will decide on Sunday whether to punish pro-bailout parties in a highly uncertain election

Record ID: 838011

  • Title: GREECE/FILE: Greek voters angry with austerity will decide on Sunday whether to punish pro-bailout parties in a highly uncertain election
  • Date: 6th May 2012
  • Summary: ATHENS, GREECE (APRIL 29, 2012) (REUTERS) ELECTION RALLY OF DEMOCRATIC LEFT LEADER FOTIS KOUVELIS (SOUNDBITE) (Greek) DEMOCRATIC LEFT LEADER FOTIS KOUVELIS, SAYING: "This country will survive after May 6. It will live beyond and despite the bailout agreement." ATHENS, GREECE (APRIL 23, 2012) (REUTERS) VARIOUS LEADER OF RIGHT-WING 'INDEPENDENT GREEKS' PARTY PANOS KAMMENOS IN HIS OFFICE PIRAEUS, GREECE (APRIL 23, 2012) (REUTERS) VARIOUS EXTREME RIGHT 'GOLDEN DAWN' PARTY HOLDING MEETING ATHENS, GREECE (APRIL 21, 2012) (REUTERS) VARIOUS EXTREME RIGHT 'GOLDEN DAWN' PARTY ACTIVISTS HOLDING ELECTION RALLY ATHENS, GREECE (MAY 2, 2012) (REUTERS) (SOUNDBITE) (English) PROFESSOR DIMITRIS KATSIKAS, POLITICAL ANALYST, ATHENS UNIVERSITY, SAYING: "Certainly it is going to be a trauma on the democratic face of Greece but to some degree something like that is to be expected given the magnitude of the crisis."
  • Embargoed: 21st May 2012 13:00
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  • Location: Greece
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  • Country: Greece
  • Topics: Politics
  • Reuters ID: LVACFAFDKLIW6W0019F1YN8MWR3V
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  • Story Text: Greeks will head to the polls in a snap general election on Sunday (May 6) in what analysts are calling one of the most crucial votes for the country's future.
    At stake is whether Greece will stick to the harsh terms of a hugely unpopular international bailout agreement agreed to with the European Union and International Monetary Fund to keep Greece from bankruptcy.
    Neither of the two major parties, conservative New Democracy and the socialist Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), pro-bailout parties, are expected to win enough votes to form a government as both have been widely blamed for the country's current economic turmoil.
    According to the last polls, their traditional support base spread around small, anti-bailout parties representing a spectrum of political views from far left to extreme right.
    New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, most likely candidate for prime minister, has made clear that, although he accepts the main goals of the IMF-EU austerity programme, he will renegotiate how to reach them. The frontrunner party to win the election race with some 25 percent of votes according to the last polls, Samaras has promised to cut taxes and raise pensions and family benefits without missing budget targets set by international lenders. He has said Greece could reduce unemployment to less than 10 percent within the next few years, currently hovering at 20 percent. But to achieve his goals Samaras has also said he would rather rule alone and is seeking a majority.
    "We are asking for a clear mandate and a strong majority in order to do what needs to be done and is required by the country in order for Greece to stand on its feet, and it can and it will," he told his supporters.
    But a coalition is more likely with PASOK and possibly a smaller party. PASOK's Evangelos Venizelos, ex-finance minister when the government negotiated a second EU bailout loan earlier this year, took over party leadership from ex-prime minister George Papandreou in March in an attempt to win back dwindling support for PASOK. Many of the fiscal cuts affected parts of PASOK's political base - such as civil servants - and the party has seen long-time supporters defect to smaller parties. Venizelos has managed to revive the fortunes of PASOK however, bringing the party to second place. Polls show it could come second with around 19 percent. Venizelos supports the EU/IMF bailout but proposes an extended period for the program's targets over three years instead of two to ease the pain of austerity, and believes EU partners would agree.
    "We propose a comprehensive plan, for the final exit of the country from the crisis, in three years, and this is something very concrete. We propose the unique, safe way for this exit," Venizelos told Reuters Television.
    But it is not likely either party will secure enough support to form a one-party government, and avoid a coalition. Some analysts say this could be hard to put into action as Greek parties are not accustomed to sharing power.
    "The most visible danger at the moment is that we won't have a single party majority which is the tradition in Greece. In order to keep going with the programme we will have to have a coalition government of some kind. Our tradition is not very good in this respect. Even this coalition government, the Papademos government, was very difficult to form, and it did not actually operate very well. There was constant conflict between the two major parties that supported it. So there is a big question mark there if the two main parties basically which are behind the (austerity) programme are going to be able to agree to a coalition, under what conditions and whether this coalition will be viable," said Athens University political and economics professor Dimitris Katsikas. In November New Democracy stopped opposing the EU/IMF bailout and joined ruling PASOK in an interim coalition government under technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos.
    As many as eight to 10 parties may enter parliament, some for the first time, as the public expresses its anger over the austerity measures that cut wages, jobs, pensions and increased taxes.
    "The people want actually to give an anger vote if you like, to give a vote that will punish the government, basically the two main-stream parties, that have governed in the past 30 or 40 years," said Katsikas.
    On the left side of the spectrum are anti-bailout parties such as the Communist, Left Coalition and Democratic Left parties, all high in the polls after the two main parties.
    The Communists, with about eight percent, have always been against the bailout deals, against EU membership and the euro, and ruled out working in a coalition. The Left Coalition of Alexis Tsipras, likely to get 9 to 12 percent of the vote based on last polls, is highly critical of the austerity program, the coalition government with the two main parties, the European Union, and wants Greece's debt repayment suspended for a period of time.
    "They (coalition government) decided without us, so the time has come for us to proceed without them," Tsipras told his supporters.
    A more moderate left and pro-EU political group, Democratic Left, led by Fotis Kouvelis, with about eight to 10 percent, is also critical of the bailout agreement but has not completely ruled out cooperating in a coalition if the next government re-negotiates austerity policies, and the two parties may turn to Kouvelis if they fail to clinch coalition numbers.
    "This country will survive after May 6. It will live beyond and despite the bailout agreement," Kouvelis told supporters, playing down the two main parties' warnings of disaster for Greece if voters go against the bailout agreement.
    Representing the more traditionalist right is the 'Independent Greeks' party of Panos Kammenos, which has shot up the polls to 11 percent. Kammenos is a New Democracy defector, and has taken another 10 New Democracy party members with him, after Samaras stopped rejecting the austerity program and joined the Socialists in a coalition government, denting Samara's hopes for a majority. Kammenos is also pro-euro, but critical of the EU and coalition government's economic decisions in the last two years, saying Greece has lost its sovereignty. He has ruled out cooperation with the two main parties.
    A party that has caused alarm in the electoral race is the ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn party. The party may enter parliament for the first time, with opinion polls showing the group with a staggering 5 percent of the vote. An extreme right, anti-immigrant, nationalist party with patriotic symbolism and a flag that resembles a swastika, its members are known more for conducting security street patrols in immigrant populated neighbourhoods and clashing with immigrants. The party gained popularity after rising negative sentiment over hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants crowding mainly into Athens and blamed for crime. It has caused concerns from all the other mainstream parties.
    Katsikas said it would be unnerving for many to see such a party in parliament. But he played down its influence in Greece's political future, saying such a reaction for the extreme under such harsh austerity was expected.
    "Certainly it is going to be a trauma on the democratic face of Greece, but to some degree something like that is to be expected given the magnitude of the crisis," he said.
    The IMF and euro zone partners are worried about the uncertainty linked to the election and have warned that whoever wins must keep implementing austerity measures to receive aid from the latest 130-billion euro bailout. Lenders may wait to see if the new government actually delivers on reforms before releasing any more funds. They have repeatedly criticised the slow rhythm of reforms and the targets missed by the two previous governments. In June a hefty austerity package of over 11 billion euros in extra spending cuts is needed.
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