JAPAN: Government seismologists warn of possible magnitude 8.0 aftershock in coming months, following last month's massive 9.0 earthquake

Record ID: 462892

  • Title: JAPAN: Government seismologists warn of possible magnitude 8.0 aftershock in coming months, following last month's massive 9.0 earthquake
  • Date: 14th April 2011
  • Summary: TOKYO, JAPAN (APRIL 14, 2011) (REUTERS) EXTERIOR OF JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA) VIEW OF SIGN READING IN ENGLISH AND JAPANESE, 'JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY' JMA EMPLOYEES WORKING IN JMA VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE REACTION CENTRE JMA LOOKING AT SEISMOMETER READINGS ON SCREEN VARIOUS OF SEISMOMETER READINGS ON SCREEN DIRECTOR OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION INFORMATION DIVISION, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY, KEIJI DOI DOI'S FACE (SOUNDBITE) (Japanese) DIRECTOR OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION INFORMATION DIVISION, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY, KEIJI DOI, SAYING: "On March 11 there was an extremely large magnitude 7.7 aftershock off the coast of Ibaraki prefecture and so that's the the biggest aftershock at the present time. But we're not at a stage where we can assert that it's the biggest aftershock in the series of aftershock activity. I think, going forward, there is a possibility of an aftershock of around magnitude 8 and we have to prepare for it." MORE OF EMPLOYEES WORKING MAN ON TELEPHONE VARIOUS OF EARTHQUAKE MAP ON ELECTRONIC SCREEN (SOUNDBITE) (Japanese) DIRECTOR OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION INFORMATION DIVISION, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY, KEIJI DOI, SAYING: "It was an extremely large, magnitude 9 earthquake, so it's difficult to think of them (the aftershocks) petering out after one or two months. We should expect them to continue for about four or five months, or half a year." VARIOUS OF EXTERIOR OF TOKYO UNIVERSITY VIEW OF SIGN READING IN ENGLISH AND JAPANESE 'THE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO' VIEW OF PATHWAY ON UNIVERSITY CAMPUS PROFESSOR ROBERT GELLER WALKING ALONG PATHWAY GELLER TALKING BEFORE INTERVIEW GELLER'S FACE (SOUNDBITE) (English) PROFESSOR OF SOLID EARTH SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO, DR ROBERT GELLER, SAYING: "The largest earthquake aftershock tends to be about one magnitude order down from the big one. So maybe a magnitude 8 aftershock could happen, and that could cause a fairly substantial tsunami in some local regions, and also a lot of damage to already damaged buildings." VARIOUS OF PEOPLE WALKING IN TOKYO UNIVERSITY CAMPUS (SOUNDBITE) (English) PROFESSOR OF SOLID EARTH SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO, DR ROBERT GELLER, SAYING: "Any place around the Pacific is capable of having a magnitude 9 class earthquake at a subduction zone. So every place, and that includes, for example, the west coast of the United States, off the coast of Oregon and Seattle, where they're known to have had a magnitude 9 earthquake in about 1700, every one of those places should be expecting the possibility of a magnitude 9 earthquake." BUILDING ON TOKYO UNIVERSITY CAMPUS WOMAN AND CHILD SITTING ON GRASS OUTSIDE BUILDING
  • Embargoed: 29th April 2011 13:00
  • Keywords:
  • Location: Japan, Japan
  • Country: Japan
  • Topics: Disasters / Accidents / Natural catastrophes,Environment / Natural World
  • Reuters ID: LVA761YW72G7RLGIDM9984R0KTYG
  • Story Text: As the aftershocks from last month's 9.0 quake continue to shake Japan on a daily basis, government scientists are getting worried.
    Over the monitors, graphs and printouts at the country's meteorological agency in central Tokyo, hangs the spectre of an earthquake that struck near Sumatra in 2004. At that time, an initial 9.1 tremor was followed just three months later by another massive quake -- that reached a magnitude of 8.6 and killed more than 1,000.
    "On March 11 there was an extremely large Magnitude 7.7 aftershock off the coast of Ibaraki prefecture -- and so that's the the biggest aftershock at the present time. But we're not at a stage where we can assert that it's the biggest aftershock in the series of aftershock activity. I think, going forward, there is a possibility of an aftershock of around Magnitude 8 -- and we have to prepare for it," the Japan Meteorological Agency's head of earthquake prediction, Keiji Doi, told Reuters in an interview on Thursday (April 14).
    The agency has boosted its quick response centre, the Volcano and Earthquake Reaction Centre, from a skeleton staff of seven before the March 11 quake to more than three times that number.
    A month on from the tremor that sent a raging torrent of water over northeast Japan, and kicked off a nuclear crisis at the country's Fukushima Daiichi facility, the aftershocks seem to be subsiding. The largest since March 11, a 7.4 quake that struck last week, has been followed by far smaller tremors.
    But Doi told Reuters a huge aftershock could strike Japan at any time.
    "It was an extremely large -- Magnitude 9 -- earthquake, so it's difficult to think of them (the aftershocks) petering out after one or two months. We should expect them to continue for about four or five months, or half a year," Doi said.
    In 2007, Peru was hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0, which killed more than 500 people.
    Seismologists worry that if a quake on that scale were to strike Japan again -- and trigger another tsunami -- northeast Japan's already devastated defences would do nothing to protect the region.
    "The largest earthquake aftershock tends to be about one magnitude order down from the big one. So maybe a magnitude 8 aftershock could happen, and that could cause a fairly substantial tsunami in some local regions, and also a lot of damage to already damaged buildings," Tokyo University's Professor Robert Geller told Reuters.
    Geller is a vocal critic of Japan's system of 'hazard mapping', a process by which the JMA assigns different earthquake risk levels to certain parts of the country based on historical data. He told Reuters that the system gives some regions a false sense of security and that in fact, the entire Pacific region should be seen as equally prone to massive quakes.
    "Any place around the Pacific is capable of having a Magnitude 9 class earthquake at a subduction zone. So every place, and that includes, for example, the west coast of the United States, off the coast of Oregon and Seattle, where they're known to have had a magnitude 9 earthquake in about 1700. Every one of those places should be expecting the possibility of a magnitude 9 earthquake," Geller said.
    Japan's government estimates the bill for last month's earthquake may top 300 billion U.S. dollars, which would make it easily the world's most expensive natural disaster.
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